The Australian dollar crept up to around 84 US cents on Friday ahead of US retail sales data for August, which will be eyed for pointers on how much impact problems in credit markets have had on the world's largest economy.
Relative calm returned to Asia-Pacific regional stock markets, underpinning confidence in higher-yielding currencies, but analysts said markets were still wary of any bad news which could lead to another wave of risk aversion.
"A decent retail sales number will call into question whether or not payrolls was an anomaly, while earnings reports from key financials will shed some light on the degree and spread of exposures," said Jo Masters, currency strategist at Macquarie Bank.
"We are doubtful that any of this will change expectations of a rate cut from the FOMC next week, and thus a 25 basis point cut combined with a soothing statement, may placate concerns, particularly if credit markets continue to normalise."
The US Federal Reserve's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 18 and financial markets widely expect it start lowering the benchmark overnight federal funds rate to cushion the economy from the adverse impact of the subprime mortgage mess and the related credit market woes.
Late last week US payrolls data came in well below expectations, triggering expectations of hefty rate cuts. The Aussie was quoted at $0.8397/0.8400, up from $0.8391/95 late in local trade on Thursday, but around 1.6 percent higher during the week.
It had risen to a one-month peak of $0.8439 in offshore trade on expectations that a US interest rate cut next week would widen rate differentials between Australian and US assets. Australia's central bank though is expected to maintain a modest tightening bias and the spread between the two-year Aussie and US government bonds has widened in the past week.
Against the yen, the Australian dollar was higher at 96.56/66 yen, having hit a two-week peak of 97.16 yen in offshore trade after political uncertainty in the wake of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation kept investors from the yen and as risk aversion took a breather. But analysts remained cautious as fresh reports emerged that British mortgage lender Northern Rock, the hardest hit UK lender, got emergency financial support from the Bank of England.
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