Gallup Pakistan carried out a large scale Election Day Survey on February 18 across all four provinces of Pakistan. The survey was not meant to be an early prediction nor to monitor the fairness of elections.
It was a survey to determine the age, income and education composition of the vote banks of the leading political parties. But it also captured perceptions about fairness of elections, voter's outlook on the powers of the prime minister and a host of other issues.
The Daily Business Recorder and Aaj TV have the unique honour of working with Gallup Pakistan and PILDAT to carry out this study. The study findings will be published in several parts. The first and introductory part is being published today.
The introductory part looks at the profile of party vote banks and perceptions of voters about fairness of the electoral process on the election day. The findings are based on a survey of 5338 statistically selected voters from all the four provinces of Pakistan. They were randomly selected as they stepped out of polling stations. Detailed methodology available on request.
PROFILE OF POLITICAL PARTY VOTE BANKS: by Age, Gender, Education, Income Group and previous voting history.
-- Methodology
-- AGE COMPOSITION
-- Percent share:
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PPP PML(N) PML(Q)
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New voters 6% 6% 6%
(Age 18-21)
Age 22-49 73% 74% 72%
Age 50+ 21% 20% 22%
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The vote bank of all three leading parties are fairly similar in age composition.
EDUCATIONAL COMPOSITION:
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PPP PML(N) PML(Q)
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Percent share
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Illiterate 43% 26% 27%
Upto Middle 29% 29% 34%
High School and Intermediate 23% 34% 44%
Bachelors and Masters (College) 5% 11% 5%
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PML(N) vote bank has a higher share of college educated voters compared to the other. The PPP vote bank has a notably higher share of illiterate voters.
INCOME COMPOSITION:
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PPP PML(N) PML(Q)
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Percent share
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Very Poor 12% 8% 8%
Lower Middle 65% 57% 60%
Middle and Higher 23% 35% 32%
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(Income Group Definitions available on request)
PML(N) vote bank has a higher share of upper income groups followed by PML(Q). PPP has higher share of the very poor.
GENDER COMPOSITION:
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PPP PML(N) PML(Q)
Men 47% 50% 44%
Women 53% 50% 56%
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PML (Q) and PPP vote banks have higher share of women compared to PML (N).
PERCEPTIONS ABOUT FAIRNESS ON THE POLLING DAY:
The majority of a scientific sample of voters from all across the country perceived that the polling process on the election day was fair. However views on environment prior to polling were mixed.
72 % perceived there was very little chance of unfair practice on their polling stations, while 28% believed such a chance existed.
This preliminary report provides questions by answers to the relevant survey questions. It is followed by a summary table on the indicators of perceptions about fairness on election day and the electoral environment.
Perception on fairness on Election Day and Electoral Environment
Overall
Question 1: Do you suspect Election Day rigging against the party/candidate you voted today for the national assembly seat at your polling station?
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Yes 28%
No 72%
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POLLING STATION LEVEL:
Question 2: Do you think that the polling staff at the polling station is impartial in your constituency or partial towards a particular candidate?
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Partial 9%
Impartial 79%
Don't Know 12%
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Question 3: Did you have your hand stamped after you cast your ballot?
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Yes 95%
No 4%
No Response 1%
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PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONNENT:
Question 4: Do you think that the local administration is impartial in your constituency or is partial towards a particular candidate?
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Partial 20%
Impartial 68%
Don't Know 12%
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Question 5: Some people believe that the Caretaker Government is partial in the elections while some others believe that Government is impartial. What do you think?
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Partial 32%
Impartial 55%
Don't Know 13%
MORE TO COME ......-
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-- Other Interesting Issues to be probed in subsequent parts include:
-- Powers of the Prime Minister:
-- Who do the voters want to be more powerful: Prime Minister or the President; and who did they expect to be more powerful.
-- Second Best Choice:
-- Which other party is closest to the voter? The voters were asked: who would have been your second best choice for voting today?
-- Switching from other parties:
-- Did the voters switch political loyalties during this election. The study determines the share of switchers in leading party vote banks.
-- These and many other issues will be analysed by Gallup Pakistan in the forthcoming parts especially for Daily Business Recorder and Aaj TV.
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