Election 2008: Gallup survey - III

As Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif scramble to put together an alliance to form a Government one thing must be on their mind: How would their voters react to their alliance-formation. Are they emotionally supportive of some political parties more than others? Are they pre-disposed to some alliances more than others?
Anticipating this situation the Gallup Pakistan - Business Recorder Exit Poll Survey had asked a nationally representative sample of voters on the Election Day: "You have just voted for a person of your choice. Please let us know who would have been your second best choice?"
The responses by the voters of all the leading parties were both interesting and revealing. A sizeable group, although a minority, in each party refused to give a second choice. They were firmly attached to the party of their first choice and would not speculate on any other possibility.
For want of a better description we have termed them as the "Rigid Voters". Yet a majority in each party's voters mentioned a second choice. These choices would be a good tip for party leaders about the preferences of the voters who voted them in as parliament members. Here are the findings:
THE RIGID VOTERS:
The proportion of rigid voters who would not even speculate on a second best choice varies from party to party. Interestingly it was the lowest in the PML(N) vote bank, 25 % and the highest in the PML(Q), 55 %. (Figure 1)
PREFERRED ALLIES:
PPP-PML(N) ALLIANCE: VOTER AFFINITIES: The Exit Poll-Election Day Survey reveals that at this point the voters of the two top parties, PPP and PML(N) have the highest level of mutual political affinity. Thus, 40 % of PPP voters indicated PML(N) as their second best choice; and 45 % of PML (N) voters said the same about PPP.
PPP-PML(Q) ALLIANCE: VOTER AFFINITIES: On the other hand only 14 % of PPP voters indicated PML(Q) as their second best choice and 13 % of PML-Q voters would choose PPP as their second best choice.
PPP-MQM ALLIANCE: VOTER AFFINITIES: The survey showed very uneven relationship between PPP and MQM voters. Among MQM voters 36 % would have PPP as their second choice. In contrast only 1 % of PPP voters chose MQM as their second choice. Since the two parties might need to ally in the Provincial Assembly of Sindh, the party leaders would need to motivate their voters in favour of cooperation.
PML(Q)-MQM ALLIANCE: VOTER AFFINITIES: The affinity between PML(Q) voters and MQM voters is also rather low. Only 12 % of MQM voters indicated PML(Q) as their second best; the comparable figure among PML(Q) voters for MQM was 9 %.
ANP ALLIANCE WITH PPP AND PML(N): VOTER AFFINITIES: ANP voters are divided roughly equally between PPP and PML(N) as their second best choice. 17 % ANP voters indicated PPP and 18 % ANP voters indicated PML-N as their second best choice.
TABLE 1:

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SECOND BEST CHOICE

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AMONG

VOTERS OF                                              RIGID     NR

        PREFERENCES OF ALLIANCE MINDED                 VOTERS

             VOTERS

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          PPP   PML-N   PML-Q    MQM     ANP      Others

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PPP              40%     14%      1%      2%      8%     35%     0%

PML-N     45%            20%      1%      2%      7%     25%     1%

PML-Q     13%    17%              9%      0%      5%     55%     1%

MQM       36%     4%     12%              0%      3%     46%     0%

ANP       17%    18%      4%      1%             20%     40%     1%

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