The verdict is out on this very crucial election which President Pervez Musharraf had casually and perhaps half jokingly termed as the "Mother of all Elections". Voters express a combination of hope and despair on different aspects of the electoral process. Eighty percent (80 %) are confident their vote can make a difference. Yet only 57 % believe this parliament will complete its term.
The Gallup Pakistan - Business Recorder Exit Poll (Election Day Survey) asked a nationally representative sample of voters on the Election Day: "Do you think your vote will be helpful in improving the condition of our country or not?" Eighty percent (80 %) of the respondents expressed faith that their vote will be helpful.
Only 7 % were despondent, while 13 % remained uncertain. Voters' sense of efficacy has increased from 70 % in 1997 when the same question was asked in the 1997 Exit Poll. This increase is a healthy sign that voters are increasingly confident about the ability of democracy to resolve the country's current political crises.
Regionally, the voter in Sindh was the most confident on Election Day. Ninety-two percent (92 %) said their vote will improve national affairs. They were followed by voters in NWFP (78%), Punjab (77%) and then Balochistan (71%). Among political parties while most followed the national average, MQM voters were the most confident about the efficacy of their vote (95 %).
Despite this heightened sense of empowerment, when voters were asked, "Do you think the Newly Elected Government will complete its five-year tenure or not?" only 57 % said yes it will.
Sixteen percent (16 %) were convinced that the government will follow in the footsteps of its predecessors and be dismissed in less than five years. A notable 27% remained dubious and said they did not know. The average life expectancy of an elected Parliament in Pakistan is less than three years. With four out of five recent governments dismissed before their time, voters remain apprehensive about the prospects of the 2008 Parliament.
Within regions, voters in Sindh were again more hopeful; sixty-four percent (64 %) said the new government will serve for five years. In Balochistan 68 %, in NWFP 57 % and in Punjab 54 % said the same. Among political parties, again 78 % of MQM voters expected parliament to remain for five years. On the other hand, PML-N voters were the most despondent; only 49 % believed the new government will be allowed to complete its term.
In an interesting comparison, the last time a government was elected to be dismissed (1997), levels of hope about the longevity of the parliament were even lower; only 40 % of voters in the 1997 Exit Poll Survey on Election Day believed the parliament would complete its term.
In the span of a decade, the expectations of voters have increased, not only from the power of their own individual votes and their favoured parties but also from the ability of the system to deliver on its promises. As the new parliament begins to take shape, one hopes it will rise up to these expectations.
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