The religious political party, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, was thoroughly routed in the February 18 general elections, but still it managed to get enough seats in Balochistan to dictate its terms for a coalition government in the troubled province.
The two bitter rivals - Pakistan Peoples Party and the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (Q) - are dependent on and bargaining with JUI (F) to form the next provincial government. In the house of 65, the JUI (F) has 10 seats, PPP 11 and Balochistan National Party (Awami) seven and Awami National Party (ANP) two seats and with the support of some independent members, they can form the coalition government.
Both PPP Co-Chairperson Asif Ali Zardari and PML (Q) President Chaudhry Shuja'at Hussain have held meetings with the JUI leadership for parliamentary alliance. But Pakistan's past 60 years bear witness that in such a situation, the religious leaders were the best bargainers and exploiters of others' weaknesses.
The head of JUI's negotiating team, Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haideri, has demanded from the PPP, chief ministership of Balochistan and ministries in the Federal government. In an interview, he said the JUI (10 seats) and BNA Awami (seven seats) had united to bargain with the PPP and the PML (Q) for formation of the Balochistan government.
He indicated that the JUI might give up the chief minister's post, if its nominee was appointed governor of the province and offered some ministries in the Federal government. Political observers are of the view that PML (Q) President Chaudhry Shuja'at Hussain is desperate to have some share in a provincial government and may accept the JUI's demands, but the JUI leaders prefer a deal with the PPP.
Political analysts give credit to Maulana Fazlur Rehman for playing his cards very well during the past five years.
They said the Maulana Fazlur Rehman's Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) was not the second largest party in the National Assembly, but he successfully bargained with President Pervez Musharraf to become "Leader of the Opposition" in the National Assembly in return for voting for 17th Constitution Amendment in 2003, which permitted General Musharraf to hold two offices of the President and the Chief of Army Staff.
The Establishment allowed MMA to rule the sensitive NWFP undisturbed and made it a coalition partner in Balochistan province for five years. Analysts described Maulana Fazlur Rehman as President Musharraf's "secret weapon" as he bailed him out in all difficult situations, like passage of 17th Amendment, President's two offices and 2007 Presidential elections.
They said in the present scenario, the PPP, PML (N) and ANP still need five votes for a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly to undo the fearsome Article 58/2(B) of the Constitution (President's power to dismiss the government and the assemblies).
The allied parties also need other parties' votes in the upper house, Senate, to adopt their constitutional amendment package to restore sovereignty of the parliament and parliamentary character of the government.
The MMA has only six votes in the National Assembly, but sufficient number of the Senators in the 100-member upper house to adopt the required amendments in the Constitution.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Asif Ali Zardari have already held two meetings and agreed on the broad contours of the constitutional amendment package. It may be recalled that in 1970s, the JUI was not the majority party in the NWFP, but it successfully bargained with the majority party, National Awami Party (Wali Khan), and got chief minister's slot and Mufti Mahmud became chief executive of the province.
Maulana Mufti Mahmud headed the PNA movement, which ended in dismissal of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's government in 1977, following imposition of martial law and hanging of the PPP founder chairman. However in Benazir Bhutto's two stints as the prime minister in 1990s, Maulana Fazlur Rehman remained a PPP ally and held some important parliamentary posts.
The late PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto was critical of the Maulana's role as an ally of President Musharraf and refused to sit with him in the opposition parties' round table conference in London. It is rightly said "in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only interests prevail."
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