Tin extended recent gains to hit a record high above $20,000 per tonne on Thursday and copper was steady but seen vulnerable to a sell-off as investors focused on the possibility of recession in the United States. Three-months copper futures at the London Metal Exchange, a key gauge of real economic activity closed at $8,380 a tonne from $8,400 on Wednesday.
A tightly-supplied market and strong buying from China are supporting prices, but investors fear that a recession in the United States may lead to a drop in demand. "Underlying physical demand will possibly be in trouble for a year or so while we work out the western recession and see whether there's any knock-on to developing markets," said Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at investment fund Diapason Commodities Management.
Tin hit a record high of $20,050 a tonne. It was last at $19,950/19,955 from $19,400/19,450 on Wednesday. Low stocks and worries about the level of supply from producers in Africa and Asia are driving prices higher, analysts said. "Falling stocks, a doubling of cancelled warrants today, supply disruptions and a steep fall in Chinese output during January to February 2008 all point to further price gains," said a Barclays Capital report. China's tin output fell by 16 percent year-on-year, it said.
Tin has risen 19 percent this year, while copper is up 23 percent. Stocks of both metals in LME-registered warehouses have dropped sharply, but in copper's case, some analysts expect supply to grow. "Going forward, a series of new mines will be coming online, which should ease some of the immediate tightness on the copper market," said Lehman Brothers analyst Michael Widmer in a report.
A strike at Papua New Guinea's Ok Tedi copper and gold mine neared a fourth day on Thursday, costing the mine, which supplies 1.1 percent of the world's copper concentrate, around 85 tonnes of copper a day, the mine's operator said.
China's production of metals fell in February as coal and snow-related power shortages hammered the sector, with copper dropping 15 percent and aluminium down 12 percent from December. Refined copper production was 257,500 tonnes in February, down 44,900 tonnes from December, but still up 8.1 percent in the same period last year.
Aluminium closed unchanged from Wednesday's close at $3,115 a tonne. High energy prices and turmoil in Guinea, a major bauxite producer are expected to support prices. Zinc ended higher at $2,630 from $2,620, lead traded at $3,100 from $3,115/3,120 and nickel gained to $32,150 from $31,875.
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