Australia's grains belt is enjoying its best autumn rain in five years in key areas, boosting hopes among farmers that their biggest wheat planting ever will grow into a record crop.
Following six years of drought that slashed exports and helped global wheat prices treble since 2006, parts of the world's second-biggest wheat exporter enjoyed good seasonal rains this week, though forecasters say more will be needed in late April to ensure the crop is off to a strong start.
In the past week, up to 50 millimetres (2 inches) of rain fell in eastern growing areas, which normally produce around 40 percent of the national crop, with falls of 25 mm being common, data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au) showed.
Western Australia's wheat area, which normally accounts for another 40 percent of the national crop, also received some rain, a good sign for global markets in dire need of replenishing depleted grain reserves, and for governments grappling with commodity-driven inflation and food security fears.
"It's a blessing, it was great, it was ideal," farmer Martin Forde of Caragabal, in the prime wheat state of New South Wales, was quoted by the Land rural newspaper as saying this week.
He said it was the wettest autumn in five years. Weather bureau data showed that rainfall in New South Wales in the last three months was between 200 and 400 mm greater than the same period over the past three years. Caragabal, in the West Wyalong district 500 kilometres (311 miles) west of Sydney, received up to 30 mm this week.
At the epicentre of last season's drought, wheat crops in the region were totally wiped out at a cost of millions of dollars. A good rain front also moved through Australia's south-west this week, depositing around 25 millimetres on Wednesday and Thursday to further boost planting prospects in this area.
"It's a reasonable sign," said Ron Storey, head of private group Australian Crop Forecasters. "It's just been so dry right through Victoria for the last two months. It's stacking up OK. We still need more rain in the autumn to get the crop planted," he said. Planting of Australia's wheat crop normally begins in the third week of April, the critical time when rain is needed.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a wetter- than-normal autumn season in northern Queensland and parts of New South Wales and South Australia and around average rainfall in Western Australia.
Rainfall in Victoria State is forecast at below normal levels. The La Nina weather condition, which brought good summer rains too much of eastern Australia, is showing signs of weakening but should continue until late autumn, it says. Encouraged by record high wheat prices, farmers are already planning to sow massive winter crops. The government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics is forecasting that growers will plant the biggest-ever area of 13.4 million hectares (33.11 million acres) with wheat.
They planted 12.3 million hectares a year ago, but the lack of rain resulted in a small crop of 13.1 million tonnes, much less than the five-year average of 21.5 million tonnes.
Australian Crop Forecasters this week forecast that the next wheat crop would double from a year ago to hit a record high 27 million tonnes, though that remains dependent on getting good rains in April and May. "We still have a long way to go," said Keith Perrett, a grains grower in northern New South Wales and past president of grower representative body Grains Council of Australia.
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