The US 2008-09 soyabean crop is forecast at 81.90 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from a previous estimate after heavy rain in the US Midwest, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. "The US soyabean crop will turn out sharply lower than earlier expectations," Oil World said.
But it stressed the US crop would still be larger than the comparatively small 72.4 million tonnes harvested in 2007/08. "The already tight US corn and soyabean supply and demand balance will be squeezed even further," it said. It forecast that US 2008/09 season opening soyabean stocks at end-August 2008 will fall to only 3.80 million tonnes or 140 million bushels, substantially down from stocks of 15.62 million tonnes at end-August 2007.
The forecast of low US August stocks would be bullish for prices, it said. "Rationing of US soyabean exports and crushings is imminent," it added. It forecast US September 2008/August 2009 soyabean exports will fall to 26.80 million tonnes from 30.0 million tonnes estimated for 2007/08. US 2008/09 soyabean crushings are forecast to rise only marginally to 50.30 million tonnes from 50.25 million in 2007/08.
'Oilseed, vegoil prices likely to remain high'. Global oilseed and vegetable oil prices are likely to remain high between July 2008 and June 2009 unless governments reduce plans to expand biofuel use, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
"The market is in a critical situation," it said. "At the very high prices reached in January-June 2008, actual consumption has suffered for food - primarily in the low income countries - as well as for biofuels."
It added: "There is a high probability that the 2008-09 season will be the third year in a row with a bull market unless governments significantly reverse biofuel support and mandatory (biofuel) usage targets." It forecast Argentine soyaoil will have an average price of $1,300 a tonne fob between July 2008/June 2009, up 18 percent on the average price in the same year-ago period.
Refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm olein is forecast to average $1,210 a tonne fob Malaysia between July 2008/June 2009, up 16 percent. But a likely larger global sunflower crop means Argentine sunoil prices are likely to fall seven percent on the year in this period to $1,360 a tonne.
The forecast of higher prices also assumes crude fossil oil averaging around $110 per barrel and normal to favourable weather in oilseed producing countries. "Owing to the current tight world stocks there is no leeway for any major crop losses," it said. "But if they occur they would have a bullish price impact."
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