Turkey's ruling AK Party, accused of plotting to establish an Islamic state, faces a battle for survival this week in a court case that could lead to an early parliamentary election.
The chief prosecutor of the Court of Appeal makes his first oral presentation to the Constitutional Court on Tuesday. The Islamist-rooted party will make its presentation to the court, which is packed with secular judges, two days later. The prosecutor wants the party closed over charges of anti-secular activities and 71 leading figures, including Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul, banned from party membership for five years.
The case has deepened political and economic uncertainty, wiped billions of dollars off Turkish stocks and made some foreign investors hesitant about investing in the rapidly growing European Union-applicant country.
Most political analysts expect the party to be outlawed and some members, including Erdogan, banned from belonging to a party for five years. AK Party representatives suggest a ruling is unlikely before August. "If the party is closed we are going to have an early general election," said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
"All parties are getting ready for it. If the ruling comes in August or September we could have elections in November." Some political analysts say there is still a chance the judges could opt to levy heavy fines because the court can be unpredictable and has been accused in the past of basing its rulings on political rather than legal grounds.
The AK Party says the charges are politically motivated and have no legal merit, and the case is an insult to democracy. The EU has criticised the case and a move against the party could hurt Turkey's accession process.
Although predominantly Muslim, Turkey was founded as a secular state in 1923 by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and a powerful elite of military, judicial and academic officials see themselves as custodians of secularism.
The case follows a decision by the government to lift a ban on students wearing the Islamic headscarf at university. The Constitutional Court has ruled since then that the amendment was unconstitutional and contrary to secularism, one of the founding principles of modern Turkey.
If the AK Party is closed, its parliamentary deputies would be expected to form a new political party. The decision on whether to call an early parliamentary election could then depend on how many AK Party deputies are banned. Critics say the secularists' real aim is to remove Erdogan, who was once jailed as an Islamist radical, from politics.
"The goal is to pacify Erdogan and damage him politically so he won't be able to govern well," said Ibrahim Kalin, director of Ankara-based political think-tank SETA.
"These guys (secularists) miss the picture because the whole system will be damaged by a court closure...and polarisation in Turkey will get deeper." If Erdogan were to be banned he might be able to return to parliament as an independent deputy under election rules .
The AK Party has declined to comment on the prospect of an early election. But analysts cite Erdogan's decision to cancel parliament's summer recess, travel often across Turkey and boost spending as factors that could amount to election preparations.
An opinion poll published in liberal newspaper Milliyet on Monday showed support for the AK Party at 43.3 percent compared with 47 percent when it won last year's election, suggesting a new party formed out of the AK Party could win an election. Some politicians have warned of unrest if the AK Party is banned. But Turkish intellectuals say the public is used to governments being removed from power, most recently when the army pushed out a cabinet deemed Islamist in 1997, and play down the likelihood of unrest.
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