Indian shares likely to face uncertainty

Indian shares may remain choppy as global crude prices and domestic inflation continue to surge, dealers said. Investors will eye two near-term triggers next week, the political fall-out to the controversial nuclear deal with the US and first quarter corporate earnings, which commence next week.
For the week to July 4, the benchmark 30-share Sensex index fell 2.52 percent or 348.22 points to 13,454.
This was the seventh straight weekly loss for the Sensex. On Friday, it was reported annual inflation in Asia's third-largest economy rose to 11.63 percent for the week ended June 21, against 11.42 percent for the previous week. The rise was marginally higher than analysts' expectations.
Investors will follow political developments next week, dealers said. India's coalition government is likely to undergo a major shake-up with the dominant Congress party to push ahead with a controversial nuclear deal with the United States and ditch left-wing allies.
A four-party bloc of communist and leftist parties has already indicated it would withdraw support for the ruling Congress because of the pact. Congress, however, was working to avoid being forced into early elections and getting the atomic deal through by negotiating a new alliance with the socialist and regional Samajwadi Party (SP).
First-quarter corporate earnings will come into focus, which would commence with India's second largest software exporter Infosys Technologies, on July 11. "Next week's trading (will) be impacted by political events and the Left's final decision on support to the government," said P K Agarwal, president (research) with financial services firm Bonanza Portfolio.
The markets are likely to remain choppy if India's central bank decides to raise rates to curb rising inflation. On June 24, the RBI raised its repo rate - the rate at which commercial banks borrow funds from the central bank - to 8.5 percent from 8.0 percent with immediate effect.
It also announced a two-stage hike of the cash reserve ratio, or the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve, by 25 basis points to 8.50 percent effective July 5, and by another 25 basis points to 8.75 percent on July 19.
India's central bank will gather July 29 for its monetary policy meeting.
As of Friday's close, overseas funds had sold Indian stocks worth 6.58 billion dollars. During the same period last year, overseas funds bought 5.92 billion dollars' worth of Indian equities.