Cotton harvesting is gaining momentum with the passing of tome. Unlike previous seasons, Punjab is earlier in cotton harvesting as some 60 ginning factories in cotton areas of Central Punjab have commenced operation in new crop cotton whereas in Sindh only 5-6 ginning factories are operating. Field reports indicate some 150,000 bales have been ginned and pressed by the middle of this month.
Upcountry reports from Punjab province indicate that by the middle of next month, harvesting of non-seasonal cotton crop may either be reduced to minimal or completed.
Harvesting of seasonal cotton may start sometime in September month. As such, many of the operating factories may either suspend their ginning operation for a month or so or bring up seed-cotton from Lower Sindh area. The amount of non-seasonal cotton in Punjab is estimated around 300,000 - 350,000 bales. However, seed-cotton arrivals in Sindh will continue uninterruptedly.
Monsoons in Punjab have set in and it rains severely. According to the reports of Cotton Crop Management Group (CCMG) under Punjab Government, against the sowing target of 6.7 million acres (2.7125 mln hectares) some 5.9 million acres (2.389 mln hectares) were sown to cotton in 2008-09 season in Punjab; the shortfall being 11.94 percent whereas in Sindh, shortfall may be even more; largest shortfall being Ghotki district where rice has replaced cotton in vast area.
In some areas of Punjab where irrigation water is supplied through tube-wells, shortage of diesel is hampering operation. Dr Aijaz Pervez, Director-General Pest-warning and Quality of Pesticide in the regular meeting of CCMG in Multan said that this time attacks of mealy bug and white fly have been seen more than last season.
While addressing the same session of CCMG, Dr Noor Islam disclosed that attack of a new disease namely Redling has been seen on the crop. With the arrival of rains, pest-attack and diseases on cotton are endangering prospects of cotton production. Reports of mealy bug attack on cotton plants have also been filed from Bahawalpur and Bahawalnager districts of Punjab.
As a matter of fact, no effective medicine has yet been found to fight mealy bug attack and last season more than 20 million bales of cotton were lost in Punjab and in Sindh some half a million bales. Our cottonseeds have lost potential being infested by attack of pests and diseases and have very low resistance against attack of pests and diseases.
Cotton crop in Sindh province appears better in health than Punjab cotton perhaps because of dry and hot weather. Fears of damage to crop by attack of pests and diseases are increasing. Trade circles expect cotton production around 11.5 million 170-kg bales in 2008-09 season against reduced official target of 12.6 million bales.
Lint prices are steady to firm. Generally, bargains are finalised between Rs 3,900 and Rs 4,000 per maund of 37.324 kg ex gin. With the exception of stay lots, most of the ginned /pressed cotton has been lifted by the spinners. However, local exporters are also buying lint cotton perhaps on the advantage of the strength of US dollar against Pak Rupee.
On the basis of R.4000 /maund, FOB Karachi price works out to US Cents 72.0/lb for T-1467 st. 1-1/16 - 1-3/32 G-5. Exporters will buy cotton when rates found at export parity level. To bridge the gap between domestic cotton requirements and domestic production, Pakistan will have to import some 30 to 3.5 million 170-kg weight bales.
As regards the price of lint cotton, indicators of a lower cotton production are enough strong while indicators for a lower consumption are also strong. Much depends on political situation and law and order situation in the country. High prices of grains, crude and edible oils in world market may lend a supporting hand to bullish sentiments in cotton market.
Pakistan's economic performance in the last season has been poor. In 2007-08 season, Pakistan's total exports fetched US $19.22 against 16.97 in the last season; increase being 13.28 percent while imports were at US $39.97 billions in 2007-08 against 30.54 billions last season; increase being 30.88 percent. In 2006-07, excess of imports over exports was US $13.57 billions which increased to US $20.75 billions. For 2008-09 season, the government of Pakistan has fixed export target of US $22.10 billions and import target at US $41.0 billions. In other words, our exports are almost half of our impost.
Thus, if this state of affairs continue, some US $20 billions may be going out every year. How long our economy would go with this state of economy. If things are not set right, we may face default like situation in foreign trade and lose our credibility.
Financially/economically, the position of textile industries is in bad state and requires some strong measures such as restoration of rebate on R&D. concession in bank interests, special discount in utility bills and uninterrupted power supply to put the industry on the right track. The rising cost of inputs such as fertiliser, pesticides and seed is increasing the cost of cotton production.
Instead of spending costly foreign exchange of some US $800 millions to one billion on import of 3 to 3.5 million bales, government should help and encourage the local growers by reducing the cost of inputs and giving them GM technology seed for increasing productivity and production at least to the level of domestic consumption. Similarly, textile mills be given due incentives to increase production of textile goods and its exports.
Comments
Comments are closed.