Any impeachment of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is unlikely to hamper US "war on terror" efforts, experts say, as Washington quietly hopes the military will remain on the fringes amid political tensions in Islamabad.
The US State Department reacted cautiously to the move Thursday by Pakistan's ruling coalition to impeach Musharraf, saying it was an "internal" matter, underlining however the rule of law and democracy.
Even though Musharraf maintained close links with the Pakistani military after stepping down as army chief in November last year, experts said his possible removal would have little impact on the counterterrorism campaign. "I don't think Musharraf is indispensable, neither to the war on terror nor Pakistan's role in the war on terror," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer now with the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
Since September 11, 2001, when al Qaeda attacked the United States, the terror network's "safe haven and sanctuary in Pakistan grew enormously under General Musharraf's watch," he pointed out. "It came much more dangerous during the years of his military dictatorship, so I don't think he can be seen as critical" to Washington now, Riedel said.
He said that while there was still "tremendous sympathy" for Musharraf in the White House, "I don't think that extends beyond that, to the Congress." Musharraf should just resign, Riedel said. "I think that Pakistan needs now to focus on the very many different difficulties it faces - politically and economically - and the best way to speed that process and remove the uncertainty would be for Musharraf to make a graceful exit," he said.
A three-way power struggle among the two ruling coalition parties and Musharraf - which entered its fourth month - has distracted the fledgling Pakistani government from dealing with rising economic and terrorism challenges, experts said. While the US government may accept whatever the outcome of an internal Pakistani political process is, there will be concerns if the impeachment process turns out to be "acrimonious and something that divides the country," said Ashley Tellis, a former US National Security Council staff member.
"Then that could be a distraction from the very serious domestic and the terrorism challenges that Pakistan has to face," said Tellis, now an expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "If it precipitates disorder, then the risk of some extraordinary solution is obviously very high," he said, when asked about the possibility of the military grabbing power again. "I don't see that as a danger right now."
Lisa Curtis, a former State Department advisor, felt Musharraf's fate was largely in the hands of Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani, who she said helped to ensure February elections were successful and appeared committed to keeping the army out of politics. "The US should stay as removed as possible from the political machinations in Pakistan while urging all sides to find a peaceful resolution to the political crisis that strengthens the democratic institutions of the country and prevents a return to military rule," said Curtis, now with the Washington-based Heritage Foundation.
US officials are reportedly concerned that the government of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani lacks control over the military or the powerful intelligence service, ISI, which has been linked to a July suicide bombing of the Indian embassy in Afghanistan. Lieutenant General David McKiernan, the top US commander in Afghanistan, Thursday publicly accused the ISI of "some complicity" with militant groups fomenting violence in Afghanistan.
While Gilani has agreed to investigate the allegations against the ISI, Musharraf appears to take a more defiant position, viewing the allegations as a US conspiracy against Pakistan, noted Curtis.
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