Populism adjusted

Beyond the flattery, Trump’s first full cabinet meeting earlier this week was also high on reassurances to Trump’s populist base that the new administration had their back. “The other countries are gradually getting used to the fact that the free rides are somewhat over with,” the Commerce Secretary boasted. “Deficits do matter – and ours is coming down,” the US Trade Representative claimed. “…they (US allies) must do more. And they must meet their obligations…” crowed the Secretary of State.

That is fodder for “forgotten men and women” who propelled Trump to the White House. But it is apparent that the campaign rhetoric has been tampered with realpolitik. .

Sure, Trump has offended major European allies lately, but that’s a personality issue. On an institutional level, the US is still committed to NATO’s tenet of shared defense. Trump keeps asking NATO members to spend more on defence, which they already are. Pulling out of Paris climate accord is a setback for US leadership, but such an action was inevitable under any Republican president, Trump or anyone else. The threatening tone on trade deficits with China, Germany and Mexico seen in early days is gone.

Those adjustments with reality, which is often more complex than simplistic explanations that are easily palatable to voters, are also on display in Europe, where the genie of economic nationalism and nativism was unleashed by Brexit last year. Except that in Europe, those trying to harness the beast of populism seem to have a nuanced understanding of issues besetting the West.

In Germany, the European powerhouse, reelection prospects of Chancellor Angela Merkel looked dim few months ago. In recent years, her accepting Syrian refugees and supporting the ultra-accommodative Eurozone monetary policy troubled folks as both social and economic insecurity increased. The far-right fringe made a cause out of it, as Ms. Merkel and her party’s public approval declined. She has recently tempered her position on immigration without giving in completely, and her poll numbers are back up. The Dutch ruling party also tacked similar before March polls to stop a far-right party gaining majority.

The new leader of France took things rather head on. Emanuel Macron’s party En Marche, which is on course to win a landslide parliamentary majority, did not exist until a year ago. In a political a la carte, Macron appealed to both left and right, and managed to establish and win from a centrist platform, defeating the far-right, xenophobic National Front in the presidential polls last month. In decimating the two-party system, Macron made an adjustment with a French public tired of decline, seeking revival.

Across the channel, pundits are stunned at the “swing” in public mood towards the Labor party in the June 8 UK parliamentary elections. Far from a spent force, Labor won 40 percent of the vote, up from 30 percent in 2015. Credit goes to its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who also made a few adjustments with the electorate. Despite being a ‘Remainer’, Corbyn didn’t make an issue of Brexit’s flimsy winning margin last year. Making peace with it, he argued instead for a “soft Brexit”, in the interest of UK jobs. This helped him attract working-class voters as well as the urbanites agonizing over the referendum result last year.

Some pundits are commenting that populism, after surging in 2016, has been stopped in its tracks this year. But it would be a mistake to take it as a spent force. The US and the UK politics have been harmed by succumbing to nativism. The only hope for liberal democracy maintaining its allure lies in the affirmations of the Merkel-Macron duo. Continental Europe has become a battleground again.