Modi in the court of Trump

What happens when two bullies meet? Do they fight? Or do they prefer to talk instead? When Trump and Modi met at the White House last Monday, it was all warm handshakes and bear hugs between the two social media superstars. As the dust settles over Modi’s visit, let’s evaluate whether Pakistan’s easterly neighbour managed to secure tangible reassurances from an unpredictable superpower under Trump.

Watching the official engagements and reading through the official handouts, a number of issues in the economic domain were left untouched by Modi. India had been concerned over the Trump administration’s vows such as curtailing US trade deficits with major trading partners (including India, which has over $30 bn trade surplus with US), rationalizing its H1B visa regime (a source of high-skill immigration for tens of thousands of Indian IT graduates), and copping out of climate change leadership.

Modi seemed sensitive to Trump’s populism as he made not even a passing reference to those issues. Instead he referred to “increased productivity, job creation, and technology breakthrough” that can result from US-India economic cooperation. Trump didn’t hesitate to mention the trade and investment irritants. Donning a game face, he highlighted the need for ‘fair and reciprocal’ trade relationship, economic reforms that cut Indian red tape, and protection of American firms’ intellectual property rights.

It was in the security domain that India made some breakthroughs. The joint statement mentioned proposed US sale of naval drones and military aircrafts, joint naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific, stepped-up defence cooperation, coordination on Afghanistan strategy, and sanctions for North Korea. It also called on Pakistan to do more against alleged terrorist sanctuaries on its soil.

It appears India is willing to pay some economic price for scoring a robust security relationship with the US. That intent was acknowledged by the transactional host. Looking pleased at multibillion-dollar, job-creating prospects for American exports of energy, aircraft, and defence equipment to India, Trump told Indians they now had a “true friend” in the White House. Those words should reassure Modi, who, in a break from a long-held foreign policy, placed India’s regional bets on an expanded US role last year.

For some context, Trump, since coming to power, seemed on a path inimical to Indian regional interests. In a U-turn, America under a belligerent leader started cornering Iran, whom India had thought was back in US favour after the West-brokered nuclear deal in 2015. And instead of taking on China over trade and security, a theme which Trump brought up numerous times on the campaign trail, the new US president started cultivating China, a country whose regional influence India has been eager to contain, now more so in the wake of Xi Jinping’s massive Belt and Road Initiative.

Now it seems this visit has brought Trump closer to India’s regional thinking. Indians were clever to deploy the Chinese playbook of handling Trump: exhibit deference instead of defiance; highlight large purchases from American manufacturers; and most important, cultivate the first family. Modi was so sensitive to Trump’s rhetoric of bringing American manufacturing jobs back home that he changed the name of his flagship ‘Make in India’ manufacturing policy to ‘New India’, perhaps hoping it didn’t run into ‘Make America Great Again’.

The Modi visit came at a time when the US administration was reviewing its policy for Afghanistan, with a wider regional focus. Prospects of a genuine breakthrough will not materialize if Pakistan remains excluded from discussion. Taking cue from the way Trump administration has treated US alliances in the Middle East and Europe so far, it appears that South Asia may also be in for some negative disruption. Regional countries need to peacefully resolve their issues, instead of creating pockets of hegemony.