New York cotton breaks down to settle near 3-3/4-year low

Cotton futures ended the week near its latest 3-3/4-year low after breaking below several technical support targets when a dismal reading of the US labour market gave investors little reason to hang onto fibber futures, brokers said. They added that anticipation of further cuts to the US Department of Agriculture's November supply/demand estimates on Monday pressured cotton prices.
USDA releases its outlook for the 2008/09 cotton crop year at 0830 am EST (1300 GMT) on Monday. The key December cotton futures closed about 2.25 percent lower at 42.07 cents a lb, a 0.91-cent decline. But the December contract fell as low as 42.0 earlier in the session, matching the August 2004 bottom on the spot cotton contract chart and breaking through several downside targets on the way down.
December cotton volume stood at 14,630 lots by 3:26 pm (2026 GMT). March cotton ended with a loss of 1.09 cent at 45.60 cents a lb, about a 2.50 percent drop. Analysts said they look for Monday's USDA report to show continued cuts to production, exports and demand figures, with likely increases in ending stocks, the same pattern witnessed in the October report.
In October, analysts said, USDA finally acknowledged the global slowdown when its adjustments favoured cotton market bears in nearly every category. Bears are likely to be vindicated again with Monday's USDA cotton outlook. In early trading, cotton futures were pulled off session highs following a US labour report that showed October had the worst unemployment rate in 14 years at 6.5 percent.
Along with sagging retail sales a day earlier, recent economic data suggest demand for cotton will likely remain weak for some time to come, weighing on futures prices. Furthermore, cotton futures were hit by bearish action in the options market. "Options have definitely been bearish, with puts being bought and call spreads being sold. The action comes from both trade and funds," said one cotton broker. Several downside technical breaches also drew more and more sellers into the fray.
The first break came when the February 2005 low at 42.61 cents a lb on the spot month continuation chart that eventually gave way leading to the August 2004 low at 42.0 cents a lb. Brokers Flanagan Trading Corp's daily report put next support for December cotton at 41.10 cents, then 40.35 cents. Resistance was seen at 42.61 and 43.45 cents. On Thursday, cotton futures volume rose to 22,444 lots from 19,481 lots on Wednesday, exchange data showed.