Corporate bankruptcies could increase in 2009, with companies in packaging, trucking and media most at risk if they do not take decisive actions to revamp their operations, the chief executive of restructuring company AlixPartners said on Tuesday.
"It looks as though the acceleration of bankruptcy filings that we saw in second half of 2008 is going to continue," Chief Executive Officer Fred Crawford said in an interview, citing AlixPartners' proprietary computer model that spotlights companies in need of restructuring and in danger of bankruptcy if they do not act quickly.
"There are four to five (industries) that are standing out in our analysis - auto parts, media and entertainment, the transportation industry and surprisingly, the packaging industry."
Smaller companies that make corrugated boxes, bottles or polyurethane packaging are struggling as the US recession chokes consumer spending and demand for shipping or packing materials, he said. "That group has the potential to get pretty hard hit in 2009," Crawford said. In the past week, plastic bottle maker Constar International Inc and paperboard packaging company Chesapeake Corp filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Some trucking companies could also seek bankruptcy protection as the recession curbs the need for their services, Crawford said. The transportation industry spent a large part of 2008 grappling with record high fuel prices before starting to feel the effects of the global economic crisis.
"I'll expect that will be a segment that will get hit pretty hard," he said. Crawford declined to give specific company names, citing his access to proprietary information. Credit for companies on the verge of bankruptcy will be difficult to obtain, or at least obtain at affordable rates, said Crawford. Tight credit has been a major component of the financial crisis. "Many of the traditional lenders are either sitting on cash, or trying to build a larger cash position, or making the terms available pretty onerous," he said. "We unfortunately expect that the first half of 2009 will continue like the second half of 2008, where it's tough to get financing."
Still, private equity funds have stockpiles of cash that will allow them to invest in distressed companies in the future, Crawford said. "We do see the private equity industry really building up a very large war chest to do distressed investing," he said "When this begins to thaw, we do think there's a fair amount of money (that will be) available. It's just getting people confident enough to call the bottom and begin to lend."
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