The government is expected to establish an independent statistical gathering body in an effort to ensure that data is not only accurate, which would provide critical input for policy amendments/reform, but also credible, to preempt accusations by members of the Opposition and analysts about the veracity of the data.
It is in the overall political interest of governments to show data that reflects well on the economic performance of key macroeconomic indicators; yet, manipulating statistics to make them favourable precludes the need for the government to take corrective measures in a timely fashion that, in turn, may well translate into a worsening of the situation with the resulting loss of political support.
Manipulating statistics is a concern that is more evident in the developing world where the government is the only actor involved in the collection of economic data. In the West think-tanks as well as independent data collection bodies routinely analyse government data and assess its credibility, thus there is little evidence of blatant data manipulation in the developed world.
It maybe recalled that Shaukat Aziz, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, was accused of blatant manipulation of statistics by the first Finance Minister of the present government, Ishaq Dar. In addition, anecdotal reports emanating from cabinet meetings during the Musharraf era strengthen the allegation that Shaukat Aziz would request substitution of the statistical data made available to him to one that would reflect well on his handling of the economy.
Without going into the veracity of such allegations and reports analysts in this country are generally agreed that our governments - that go well beyond the duration of the Musharraf regime - have not been averse to manipulating data. The extent of this manipulation, has, of course, varied and that may have been more a function of the actual performance of the economy at the time rather than a reluctance to manipulate the statistics themselves.
Thus the recent decision of the government to create a body that would merge all data collection sources, designed to provide accurate data to the government to enable it to deal with contingencies as and when they arrive, is laudable. According to reports this proposal was tabled during the Cabinet meeting in 2006 but never implemented. Critics of the new system would, no doubt, argue that merging of all data collection agencies reflects centralisation of the statistical gathering machinery under one head that may facilitate rather than deter manipulation.
Thus the issue is one of government intent which is based on need given the state of the economy as opposed to getting good results merely through adopting a system that streamlines the process. The ideal situation would be to empower the private sector through support of think tanks. It has been reported that the British DFID is supporting a reorganisation of the Federal Bureau of Statistics.
As a check and balance bilaterals like DFID may strengthen the private sector's capacity to analyse data which would make manipulation that much more difficult to sell to the public.
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