Taiwan exports slide, some signs of restocking

Taiwan's exports fell 28.6 percent in February from a year earlier, declining more slowly than January's record plunge as buyers restocked after depleting inventory too quickly. There was little sign of an improvement in global demand. Analysts said the February data could have been distorted by the Lunar New Year break, which fell in January this year and February last year.
In January and February combined, Taiwan's exports fell 37.2 percent, the finance ministry said. Taiwan's shipments, which are something of bellwether of Asian trade, will probably keep falling, even though rush orders in certain tech sectors could offer some support, analysts said.
"Taiwan's exports were the earliest to start to show the negative influence of the global financial meltdown, and were the earliest to show a clear degeneration," said Cheng Cheng-mount, an economist at Citigroup, said. "Even though February exports were better it's still not a clear trend, I think that other countries' exports will gradually feel the effects of the global economic slowdown," he said. The median forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts was for a 25.2 percent fall.
Exports totalled $12.6 billion in February. Imports fell 31.6 percent to $10.9 billion, giving Taiwan a trade surplus of $1.67 billion compared with $1.6 billion a year earlier. Economists in the poll had expected imports to fall 31.9 percent in February and a trade surplus of $2.3 billion. South Korea, the first Asian exporter to release trade data each month, said exports fell 17.1 percent in February and were down 25.6 percent in the first two months of the year.
Analysts said South Korea's exports profile was more diversified, helping cushion it from volatility in the technology cycle. Taiwan's firms, such as Quanta Computer and AU Optronics who help make 80 percent of the world's laptops and 40 percent of liquid crystal displays, have been hit by the global downturn.
"Looking ahead, rush orders and the restocking of inventories in the liquid crystal display sector and part of tech industry might help spur demand in electronics components. That will help Taiwan's exports improve," said Lin Lee-jen, chief statistician at the finance ministry. On Monday, UMC said its February sales plunged 57 percent, signalling more gloom for global electronics demand and Taiwan's exports.