Chicago soya and wheat futures gained on Monday, with soyabeans rising above $10 a bushel for the first time in nearly 2 months on crop-threatening US cold and hopes the end of the worst global recession is in sight. Analysts said hopes of steady Chinese soya demand in the weeks ahead and dismal crop estimates in South America gave additional strength to the soyabean market.
"Sentiment appears to be improving globally on the hope of continued stabilisation and then slow recovery which is being translated into higher commodity prices," said Garry Booth, a trader at commodity brokers MF Global Australia. "With wheat and soyabeans we are seeing concerns about weather in the US and South America." The Chicago Board of Trade May soya rose 6-3/4 cents to $10.02-1/4 per bushel, for the first time since February 10.
May corn was up 1/4 cent at $4.04-3/4 and wheat for May gained 6-1/4 cents to $5.69-3/4 per bushel. Asian stock markets gained and crude oil futures rose above $53 a barrel as the increased optimism for the US economy helped draw more investments across the commodities complex. A strengthening crude oil market often boosts corn and soyabean prices, because of their use in making alternative fuels.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB, a broad commodities index that tracks prices across 19 energy, metals, grains and soft markets, finished last week with 3 percent gains. US soyabean export sales for the current marketing year were near the high end of trade expectations last week despite a decline in old-crop sales to China. But China contributed the majority of the larger-than-expected new marketing year soyabean sales, with 412,000 tonnes in the week of March 23.
"The belief is that China will continue its aggressive purchases of US and South American soyabeans," said Booth. Chinas financial markets, including the Dalian futures exchange which actively trades soyabeans, were closed for a local holiday. While a reduction in soya crop estimates in South America helped soyabeans, cold weather forecast for this week in US may hit wheat production.
Drought has cut soya production in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, the worlds second, third and fourth largest soya exporters respectively. Argentina reduced its crop estimate, the Paraguay government on Friday forecast the countrys 2008/09 soyabean crop at 4.15 million tonnes, down almost 40 percent from last year. A cold snap forecast for this week in the US Plains hard red winter wheat region posed a threat to some of the crop.
Planting time for corn is approaching in the Midwest and winter wheat, dormant since autumn, is reviving for a sprint to early summer maturity. But a freeze is forecast for the heart of the US hard red winter wheat belt. In addition, the Red River Valley in eastern North Dakota, the heart of the spring-planted wheat belt, remains at risk of more flooding this month.
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