Global soyabean exports will fall in June to August this year as high prices are likely to cut demand, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. "It is still uncertain whether the recent rally in soyabean futures to a new eight-month high in the second week of June will be sufficient to generate the required rationing of imports or whether soyabean prices will have resumed their rally in the near term," Oil World said.
Soyabean sales by main exporters the United States, Argentina and Brazil are running at a high rate despite tight supplies and reached a combined 49.2 million tonnes in March/May 2009, up 2.7 million tonnes on the year, it said. This rate cannot be sustained because of tight supplies and the three countries are only likely to export 42 million tonnes in June/August 2009, down over 5 million tonnes on the year, it forecast.
Rising prices could mean key importer China will reduce its soyabean imports in coming months, use up some of its current soyabean stocks and increase soyabean imports once new crop supplies become available from the US this summer, it said.
"We expect that the Chinese government will sharply reduce soyabean imports in the next three months," Oil World said. "It is likely that this would also imply additional cancellations of previous purchases and/or shifting some of the previous purchases from the original shipment date of July or August to October-November 2009." If this happens, downward price pressure could be put on soyabeans, it said.
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