Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee exporter after Brazil, could ship 1.15 million tonnes (19.2 million bags) this year, a rise of 15 percent from 2008, an industry report said. Earnings from coffee, the second-largest export earner after rice, are forecast at $1.6 billion in 2009, down from $2.02 billion last year, Chairman Luong Van Tu of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said in the report seen on Monday.
Coffee exports in September to December could reach 350,000 tonnes, after 800,000 tonnes were shipped in the first eight months to earn $1.2 billion, Tu was quoted as telling trade ministry and central bank officials last Thursday.
The figures suggested the average coffee price in the last four months of this year could fall to $1,143 a tonne, free on board, from $1,500 a tonne in the first eight months. "Now coffee prices are at a three-year low for a number of reasons, creating many difficulties for exporters," Tu said in the report. Last year Vietnam exported 16.67 million 60 kg bags of coffee, down 18.4 percent from 2007, government figures show. Its coffee crop year runs from October to September.
In the next 2009/2010 season, coffee exports are forecast to fall 4.3 percent to 18 million bags following an output drop of 6.7 percent to 18.35 million bags due to adverse weather, the US Department of Agriculture has said. More than half the coffee Vietnam exports goes to the European Union, followed by 25 percent to the US market and 7 percent to Japan, the USDA said.
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