The wait isn’t over yet for the loyal brother. So close yet so far is the top job for Shahbaz Sharif. First he was publicly announced as the elder Sharif’s replacement. Then Nawaz changed his mind. Later Shahbaz was tipped as the PML-N’s next chief. But even there, a snub seems in the works. Nawaz is busy playing a game of musical chairs. But Khadim-e-Aala, who isn’t a political novice, doesn’t seem inclined to rock the boat.
In the wake of Nawaz’s disqualification, many observers were puzzled by the idea of an immediate elevation of Shahbaz to ‘the PM post. It was a losing hand on various counts. Shahbaz would have to go through a bitterly contested by-election, only to become premier for less than a year. That’s hardly time enough to get governance going at the center, while leaving Punjab’s complex politics to inexperience.
In that sense, Nawaz’s change of heart unwittingly saved Shahbaz from failure. Six to eight months from now, Shahbaz retains the chance to walk down the red carpet rolled out for him by a party that may start looking for direction and leadership away from an increasingly belligerent Nawaz. But those prospects will be affected by the fate of two individuals, the current and former prime ministers.
It’s time for some political reckoning now that NAB cases have been filed against Nawaz, his family, and Mr. Dar. The political reputation of Nawaz, and by extension PML-N, will suffer more damage should the accountability courts order former premier’s assets frozen and name put on the ECL. One man’s loss is another man’s gain. Calls for Shahbaz to step up will grow if Nawaz becomes radioactive.
But there is a twist in the tail.
One, the incumbent premier, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, has been drawing generally positive reviews. A reputation is growing that he is paying attention, making swift decisions, and consolidating his grip on economic governance. The PML-N may have found a competent premier by accident. But Abbasi’s rise is no good news for Shahbaz, who, over the years, had cultivated an aura of competence solely around himself.
And two, Nawaz seems in no mood to share the fruits of power at the top with the Shahbaz branch of the family. Keeping it all in his immediate family that is in serious legal limbo, Nawaz may want a bigger political role for his ailing spouse, who is contesting the NA-120 by-election to replace Nawaz this Sunday. Whether isolated or not, Shahbaz and his progeny watch this game of thrones from a distance. They stand to lose no matter what the outcome of this by-election.
If Nawaz is a master of electoral politics, Shahbaz knows well how to get development projects going. Both bros need each other if the PML-N is to survive the coming winter. If Nawaz refuses to share and continued to treat PML-N as a fief, he would take revenge on his own party. And if Shahbaz gets the timing of his defiance wrong, it will divide the party, too. Nawaz must realise that Shahbaz has earned his stripes for the top job. If he is sidelined, the PML-N may face a hard landing in the next general elections.
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