Peace in South Asia

Addressing foreign correspondents at the Foreign Press Centre, Admiral Mike Mullen said that Kashmir was a principal question and that Pakistan and India needed to address it. He urged both countries to settle the issue, stressing that the resolution of the 62-year-old dispute was important for restoring peace to the South Asian region.
He underlined that the dispute concerned many other countries as well, in terms of stability of the region. Admiral Mullen was, in fact, repeating what President Obama had told a group of journalists at a White House lunch last week. He had said that reducing tensions between the two nuclear rivals, though enormously difficult, is "as important as anything to the long-term stability of the region."
While it is reassuring to note that the Obama administration takes cognisance of what Pakistan has been saying all along, what worries one is a continuing unwillingness on its part to nudge India to settle the disputes that continue to mar relations between the two countries, topped by the Kashmir issue. Both Pervez Musharraf and Dr Manmohan Singh have separately acknowledged that the composite dialogue had led to the breaking of the ice, engendering hopes of the resolution of the Kashmir question.
There is therefore a dire need to restart the talks from the point where they were broken. The composite dialogue was called off unilaterally by India in the wake of the Mumbai attacks in November 2008. With the elections on the horizon, Hindu nationalist BJP politicised the issue of the Mumbai attacks, forcing the Congress leadership also to take a hawkish stand. One had hoped that once the elections were over, realism would prevail and attempts would be made to revive the disrupted peace process.
Dr Manmohan Singh, in fact, agreed to de-link the issue of terrorism from bilateral talks when he met Prime Minister Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh. Under pressure from the Indian media and the right wing parties, however, he staged an about-turn within a few weeks. Strained relations between India and Pakistan do not allow Islamabad to remove the bulk of its troops from its eastern border to fight off terrorism with maximum resources at its disposal.
While misunderstandings persist between the two countries, any major action by terrorists inside India can lead the two countries to war, which will not only have a highly negative impact on their economy but also have wider implications for the entire South Asia. Kashmir continues to be a powder keg that can explode any time.
Despite India's insistence that disputes with Pakistan can only be resolved bilaterally, it is not responding to Islamabad's overtures to restart the stalled dialogue. As the US enjoys immense clout with India, many expect President Obama to play a role in breaking the gridlock in South Asia.
Washington has entered into a nuclear technology deal with India after amending the relevant US law and seeking an exemption for India by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, thus allowing New Delhi to procure nuclear technology and fuel for its reactors from the international market. In its pursuit of top technology, India is increasingly relying on the US.
The defence deal between the two countries, worth $2.1 billion, allows India to buy Boeing P-8 Long-Range Maritime Reconnaissance (LRMR) aircraft for its navy. This is the largest ever defence deal between the two countries. India also seeks US support to project itself as a world power. Under the circumstances, Washington is in a position to pressure India to resolve its disputes with Pakistan, particularly the Kashmir dispute.
It has to realise that unless there is a real move towards the resolution of the dispute, mistrust between the neighbours would continue to persist. Under the circumstances, there is little likelihood of the 'de-tensioning' of the border between the two countries, considered absolutely critical to the long-term stability in the region by Admiral Mullen. It remains to be seen if the US is really willing to play the role no other country can.
The announcement by President Obama that his administration would begin to pull out its troops from Afghanistan after 18 months has given rise to apprehensions in Pakistan that he may install India as a proxy power to protect US interests. This indicates the level of the prevailing mistrust. It is in US' own interest to undertake moves aimed at restoring confidence between India and Pakistan.