Not to mistake Pakistan's forbearance for weakness

It's not that General Deepak Kapoor is the first Indian army chief to threaten Pakistan; such threats do periodically emanate from New Delhi and receive appropriate ripostes.
But it is the special context of the growing political instability here and the telltale fingerprints of outside interference, aimed at the triggering destabilisation of Pakistan, that has warranted a stern warning by the National Command Authority (NCA).
Taking serious note of the Indian army chief's statement of 'limited war under a nuclear hang' and his boast of taking on Pakistan and China simultaneously, the NCA has warned India not to mistake Pakistan's forbearance in face of the belligerent statements for weakness. "Such irresponsible statements reflected a hegemonic mindset, oblivious of the dangerous implications of adventurism in a nuclearised context," remarked the NCA after its meeting chaired by Prime Minister Gilani.
But, more importantly, the NCA traced the rising tempo of India's belligerence to some of its international supporters, highlighting the Indo-Israeli nexus at the Geneva-based Conference of Disarmament (CD), where an attempt is being made to isolate Pakistan on the Fissile Material Treaty (FMT).
India is working at scuttling Pakistan's position, which is that it should be a verifiable fissile materials treaty. But there are moves at Geneva to set aside the principle of verification to cater to some interests including India's - which go against the principle of 'equal security for all'.
India wants exemption from the 'verification' aspect of the under-study FMT, in order to acquire international legitimacy for the India-US nuclear deal, as well as to keep its eight 'civil' nuclear reactors and its Breeder programme outside the pale of international safeguards. The NCA said it would not support "any approach or measure that is prejudicial to its legitimate national security interests".
That answers the question as to why Pakistan is opposing clinching a consensus on the Fissile Material Treaty in its present draft form. It is not by words alone that India is trying to project its power; it is spending many more billions to modernise its war machine.
According to a report jointly prepared by the global consultancy firm KPMG and the Confederation of Indian Chambers, India is going to acquire 126 multi-role aircraft to increase its air force squadrons from 34 (612 fighters) to 42 (756 fighters) by 2020, in addition to heavy lift helicopters, submarines, ships, and artillery for the army.
All these deals are part of a 100 billion dollars budgetary provision over the next 10 years. Even when India talks of two-front war scenario, the prime objective behind enhancing military prowess is India's focus on Pakistan, and the report duly points in that direction by saying India "will have to focus on improving homeland security after the Mumbai attacks" as it justifies the need for modern long-range artillery in view of the "shortcomings of the equipment held by the Indian armed forces" during the Kargil conflict.
The NCA notes that the "massive inductions" and "offensive doctrines like Cold Start" are the kind of elements that tend to undermine regional balance, and made clear that Pakistan cannot be oblivious to these looming threats. The National Command Authority has rightly faulted the Conference of Disarmament for its failure to warn India against charging the South Asia region with tensions that grow from massive arms acquisitions.
Being the sole disarmament negotiating forum, the CD should play its role at all levels - be it the global nuclear hang or the regional tensions with potential to unleash aggression and invasion. How surprising that the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) has opted to promote nuclear proliferation by India by freeing up its domestic resources from the application of international safeguards regime.
Is the Indian nuclear policy and programme very different from Pakistan's that the CD and NSG should have adopted discriminatory positions completely ignoring the imperative of strategic balance in South Asia for durable peace and security? And India should make no mistake; Pakistan has catered to the need of maintaining minimum nuclear deterrence. We expect India would not cross the threshold and desist committing the folly of launching the 'Cold Start'.