The total losses of agriculture, livestock and irrigation sectors are estimated at Rs 57,424 million of which 69 percent were in the form of direct damages of assets and stock, and 31 percent as indirect losses in production caused by the crisis in the districts of Buner, Lower and Upper Dir, Shangla, and Swat in the NWFP along with two tribal agencies of Bajaur and Mohmand Agency in FATA.
In a preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment (DNA) report of Asian Development Bank and World Bank, the livestock subsector saw huge losses the most number of losses were incurred in the livestock sub-sector (ie Rs 43,508 million or 75.8 percent of total agriculture sector losses reported).
This was followed by sub-sector losses of crops estimated at Rs 12,701 million (or 22.1 percent of total reported losses), irrigation at Rs 1,126 million (2 percent of total reported losses), and fisheries at Rs 89 million (0.2 percent of total reported losses).
According to the ADB and World Bank report, the direct damages were mainly in the form of perished or lost livestock, un-harvested standing crops in the field, damaged fishery ponds, machineries, irrigation infrastructure and other government's infrastructures.
The direct damage of the livestock sub-sector is estimated at Rs 31,517 million. An estimated 600,000 large animals (cattle, buffalos, horse, and camels) and 679,000 small animals (sheep, goat, asses and donkeys), and 2.2 million heads of poultry were lost.
The direct damage of the crop sector was estimated at Rs 6,625 million, the bulk of which was in the form of un-harvested standing crops including wheat and vegetables. In the irrigation sub-sector, the direct damage was estimated at Rs 1,126 million, and the key damage items were reported as partially damaged main canals, flood protection embankments, tube wells, and dug wells. The direct damages of the fisheries sub-sector were estimated to be around Rs 89 million.
The report mentioned that the indirect losses were mainly in the form of lost milk production which were estimated at Rs 6,188 million and partially lost crop productions of the 2009 Kharif crop and the 2009/2010 Rabi crop estimated at Rs 6,075 million. The indirect losses were not calculated for irrigation and fisheries sub-sectors.
Commenting over the Recovery Needs, the report pointed out that the overall costs for early and medium-term recovery of the agriculture sector were estimated at Rs 22,681 million. Between the NWFP and FATA, the recovery costs were calculated as Rs 4,536 million and Rs 18,145 million respectively.
The largest financial losses to the affected population were the losses caused by death and distress sales of livestock. Hence, one of the key reconstruction efforts should be restocking or rebuilding of the livestock base, the report says. In the crop subsector, the report stated that the provision of essential inputs and land preparation support to farmers for the 2009/10 Rabi season was proposed.
This would require implementation on a fast track basis so that farmers do not miss the opportunity to cultivate crops on time. The emphasis should be, therefore, on inputs reaching farmers in a timely manner. In the irrigation subsector, the report mentioned that all damaged schemes and infrastructure identified were public investments.
The time required for the rehabilitation process has been assumed to be two years, with the total cost of rehabilitation estimated at Rs 1,121 million. The rehabilitation work should be properly prioritised. During the upcoming winter season, the flood protection structures and diversion bunds should be rehabilitated on a priority basis to avert further losses and damages to existing structures and Kharif crop.
Also, during this period the high priority irrigation schemes should be restored. Commenting over the private sector damages, the report mentioned that the preliminary estimates of total damages in the affected districts and the two agencies have been calculated separately for shops, industrial and business sectors, and hotels.
The consolidated amount of estimated damages for these sectors was about Rs 917 million. While the total estimate for shops damages is at Rs 396 million, the damages for industry and businesses (small and medium enterprises) are Rs 341 million, and damages incurred to tourism industry are estimated at Rs 180 million.
For the industry and business sector, the report mentioned that the damage estimates originated from information available for the power loom sector. The power loom sector has been well established in Swat due to tax advantages, skill availability and the associated benefits of a developed cluster.
Data gathered on damages to this particular industry suggested that 11 out of 65 units were damaged (17 percent of the total units). It was assumed that the damages to other industrial units and businesses would be the same as that of the power loom sector, ie 17 percent. This rate was applied to the investment cost for the industrial and business units as provided by the government.
Commenting over the recovery needs, the report mentioned that in the absence of reliable baseline information on the extent of private assets such as shops, the recovery needs for these were considered through a mix of subsidies and investment and or restocking facilitation approaches. The total estimated recovery costs for reconstruction of damaged private sector holdings would, therefore, be Rs 917 million. For NWFP this cost would be Rs 772 million (US $10 million) whereas for FATA agencies it would be Rs 146 million.
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