South American transport problems and strike threats are largely behind recent soyameal price strength but prices are likely to fall again, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. "South American soyameal exports will pick up pronouncedly in coming weeks and will necessitate a resumption of the downtrend in prices," Oil World said.
Talk of possible shipping problems in major South American soya exporter Brazil helped firm soyameal prices last week. Meanwhile, Argentine farmers remain in dispute over their government's agriculture policy. "In Brazil there is a growing discrepancy between the size of the soyabean crop and the logistical capacity," Oil World said. "The result is seen in long (vessel) line-ups at Brazilian ports and the foreseeable delays in moving soyabeans and products to end users may shift some business back to the US"
But low US soyabean stocks have limited the capability of US exporters to step in, it said. Brazilian shipments were expected to expand soon. Meanwhile, the threat of strikes by Argentine farmers as the country heads for a record soyabean crop is causing concerns its soyabean and soyameal exports may not reach earlier expectations, it said. But it stressed Argentine exporters were likely to ship as much as possible early in the season to avoid any farming dispute. This would be bearish for soyameal prices.
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