Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the March US payrolls report to a gain of 200,000 jobs from its previous expectation of a 275,000 rise, Edward McKelvey, an economist with the firm, said on Thursday. The March payrolls report, due at 8:30 am (1230 GMT) on Friday, is seen as the biggest event on the monthly calendar of US economic data and as the most comprehensive jobs reading because it includes both private and public sector employment.
Economists expect a rise of 190,000 in March payrolls, according to the median of responses in a Reuters poll, following a 36,000 drop in February. Before changing their forecast, Goldman had said in a research report there were downside risks to their projection. In that note, they said hiring for the US census could be as much as 50,000 below their baseline assumption of 125,000.
Yesterday's ADP Employer Services private sector employment report showed an unexpected fall of 23,000, raising further questions on the state of the US labor market Another tricky issue is predicting how many workers might be added in March in an expected rebound from the effect of harsh winter weather in February, the research report added.
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