Kenya's electoral authority said voting in Wednesday's referendum on a new constitution would be more transparent than the country's 2007 national election, when claims the poll was rigged triggered violence. The referendum will be the first national election vote since 1,300 people were killed in the ethnic bloodshed caused by the disputed presidential poll.
"Kenyans have learnt a lesson. We have gone to the brink, to the precipice, and now we have to prove to the world that we can hold a free and fair vote," Ahmed Hassan, chairman of the Interim Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC), told reporters. "In the 2007 election, delays in getting results created anxiety and affected the credibility of the outcome." The IIEC replaced a previous electoral body that was accused of botching the count during the disputed 2007 vote, in which President Mwai Kibaki was re-elected. Kibaki urged Kenyans to accept the referendum's outcome.
"Let us also embrace one another as brothers and sisters even after the referendum," he said on national television. Analysts played down the prospect of violence. "The election is unlikely to produce serious unrest or economic disruption, although violent incidents are possible," Philippe de Pontet Africa analyst said in a Eurasia Group note. Kenyan shares rallied strongly for the fifth straight session on Tuesday, driven by expectations the country will adopt the proposed new constitution, while the shilling rose on position-squaring.
The new law will come into force on its promulgation by Kibaki or on the expiry of a period of 14 days after the result to ratify the legal framework is published in the Kenya Gazette. Kenya's new constitution aims to address problems that have plagued its post-colonial history - corruption, political patronage, land grabbing and tribalism.
A previous attempt to change the constitution through a referendum in 2005 failed when it was rejected by voters. Hassan said the electoral authority would use electronic technology in recording the ballots in an attempt to guard against "cheating and other malpractices".
For the first time in Kenya, provisional results will be sent electronically through specially configured phones from individual polling stations in the 210 constituencies to a national centre where they will be broadcast live by the media. Previously, ballots from polling stations were tallied at a constituency level before being phoned in - increasing the risk of manipulation on the ground. With just hours to go to the start of voting at 6 am (0400 GMT) rising tribal tensions in some parts of the country - notably the Rift Valley, which was hard hit by the post-election violence - prompted some residents to flee their homes.
Authorities have said those fleeing are haunted by past skirmishes, but there was unlikely to be violence this time. A total of 63,400 police officers have been deployed to the country's 27,689 polling stations. "Tomorrow, we have a date with destiny as a nation," said Prime Minister Raila Odinga. "Let us make a statement once and for all that we are not just a collection of tribes, clans, religious groups or races. Let us prove that we, the people of Kenya, can still stand up and make hard decisions for ourselves peacefully," he said.
Some residents, mostly labourers and peasants, in areas bordering the Maasai Mara game reserve in Narok, left their homes for fear of being attacked by neighbours. In the Rift Valley town of Naivasha, another hotspot during the 2008 post-election violence, those leaving said they did not want to take any risks this time. "We don't want to take chances as we know what happened in 2008 and we shall come back after the referendum if chaos doesn't erupt," said Monica Onyango.
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