The Ides of March

The anxious waiting game is on, for the Senate elections in March. The PML-N has been reduced to a glimmer of its once formidable self. The party remains in power, but only nominally. Its government is a democratic dispensation, but in name only. It still has some allies left, but only marginally. Cracks are visible in the Sharif dynasty. As usual, political pundits are giving no quarter to an embattled regime.

With his back against the wall, the elder Sharif has arguably been left with no choice but to forcefully call out the perceived injustice meted out to him and his immediate family last summer. Both his friends and foes caution ‘restraint’ in challenging the permanent state. Confrontation, they argue, is not sustainable, and will only hasten the fall of the democratic veneer which politicos have accumulated in the last decade.

But Nawaz is not listening. He has been put into a tight corner, so his rational response is to go down fighting. The so-called London Plan has toned down his rhetoric, but don’t bet on Nawaz holding fire for too long. Notwithstanding his political missteps – such as turning the screw on the PPP in Sindh and ignoring further implementation of the Charter of Democracy – Nawaz perhaps feels that he has been wronged, despite him offering a great degree of concessions and restraint when it comes to ‘institutions’.

The civilians are busy firefighting and the khakis are accumulating goodwill every day. It’s no rocket science to sense which way the wind is blowing in Pakistan these days. The Punjabi upper- and middle-class has had a change of heart roughly every decade on the kind of a political system they want for Pakistan. So, with the tables turned on the flawed democrats, is the country on the verge of another khaki decade?

Not really.
For one, even though the democratic project stands weakened, it’s not going to cave in just yet. There is a reason why the Eighteenth Amendment (2010) – a landmark legislation that made serious initial strides in decentralizing fiscal and legislative powers – is looked at not-so-kindly by certain quarters. It’s not easy to dislodge five elected governments when previously booting out just the one in Islamabad used to do it.

Two, governing in Pakistan is not easy. Neither the civilian rule nor the technocrat-heavy khaki decades could decisively crack Pakistan’s perennial problems of macroeconomic instability and poor public service delivery. So why take center stage and open yourself up to criticism when operating from the shadows will do just fine? There is no point taking the wheel when the whipping boy is happy driving.

And three, the current political system has proven resilient in the last ten years in the face of some half-dozen dharnas and countless pressure tactics. Nawaz got clean bowled, but his party is still batting. If the PML-N can put a lid on the dynastic infighting, the ruling party stands a decent chance of defending its record in 2018 elections. Also note that the PTI wouldn’t want to rock the boat at this stage now that the political insurgents also stand a good chance to come out on top in next elections.

Perhaps that’s what Nawaz is counting on: the political system has found equilibrium (despite elite infighting), so his rhetoric won’t boil things over, and in the process, he will restore his aura of a ‘no-dictation’ politician. Nawaz probably senses an opportunity to hold his political base together as the country has become even more polarized in the wake of the Panama verdict. He must be hoping that his victim card will be re-charged every time he makes a court appearance.

In the meantime, it’s all about taking baby steps all the way to the March Senate elections, when the PML-N is also expected to find majority. It’s all about picking up the pieces, putting the feuding house in order, and building bridges with an unrelenting PPP. But getting there won’t be easy. And another political comeback for Nawaz looks so much more difficult. But history also has a way of repeating itself.