Secretive North Korea's ailing leader Kim Jong-il has named his youngest son as a military general, state media said early on Tuesday, marking the first stage of a dynastic succession. Kim Jong-il, 68, is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008, but despite his declining health is not expected to go into retirement just yet, experts say.
They say his son Kim Jong-un is too young and inexperienced to fully take the reins. Intelligence officials say the 20-something son of the "Dear Leader" was identified last year as next in line to take power in a country with enough fissile material for at least six to eight nuclear weapons.
Little is known about the son, believed to have been born in 1983 or 1984, even by intensely secretive North Korean standards, beyond the sketchy information that he went to school in Switzerland and has been his father's favourite. Kim also gave the rank of general to his sister, Kyong-hui, who had been considered a key backer of the young son, KCNA news agency reported.
The young Kim's appointment comes ahead of the opening of a rare meeting of the ruling Workers' Party on Tuesday, in a move analysts had expected would signal the start of the succession process in the North. Regional powers will be keeping close tabs on the Workers' Party conference, the biggest meeting of its kind in the secretive state for 30 years, for any signs of change which could impact the destitute state's economic and foreign policies.
Experts say the most market-friendly outcome from the meeting is an approximate continuation of the current system. The biggest concern is any signs of regime collapse that could result in internal unrest, massive refugee flows and military exchanges.
China and Japan are the world's number two and three economies and, with South Korea, account for close to 20 percent of global economic output. Instability on the Korean peninsula could have grave implications for the global economy.
"Should the conference itself open the door for an orderly leadership change and in one way or another economic reform, we see a great deal of underlying, long-term economic benefit for a united Korean economy," said Goohoon Kwon, Korea economist and co-head of research at Goldman Sachs in Seoul. "Current North Korean risk can be seen to have its downsides, but the potential for united Korean economy in the future offers promising medium and long-term upsides." At the last such party meeting 30 years ago, Kim, then aged 38, began his official role to succeed his father and state founder by taking on a Workers' Party title.
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