China corn and soya imports to climb

China is forecast to import a record volume of soyabeans and to take more cargoes from the international corn market next year as domestic production fails to keep pace with surging demand. The outlook for higher imports from the world's top soyabean buyer and second-largest corn consumer powered US soyabean futures to a new 14-month top on Thursday, while China's Dalian corn market hit a record.
"Even at current prices there is no sign that China's soya demand is being rationed," said Doug Whitehead, a commodities analyst at Rabobank in London. "It signals that there is good off-take of soya in mainland China and to provide the necessary supply they are going to require substantial imports."
China is likely to import 54 million tonnes of the oilseed in the year to September 2011 due to rising demand for vegetable oils and protein meal, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre said on Thursday. Chinese soyabean processors are snapping up cargoes of the new crop from South America, with 5 million tonnes booked so far, or a quarter higher than last year, to satisfy voracious appetite.
China's purchases of South American beans comes in addition to a its voracious appetite for US beans this year. A little over a month into the 2010/11 marketing year which began on September 1, sales of US soyabeans have reached 23.3 million tonnes, or 56 percent of the USDA's full-year export projection. Nearly two-thirds of all sales to date from the United States are heading to China.
"The demand is strong as the crush margins are pretty good," said one Singapore-based trading manager with an international trading company that has direct sales to China. "There is no normalcy in this market, if you compare it with 2009, imports will be around one million tonnes higher this year." The nation is likely to see a corn supply deficit of as much as 7 million tonnes, a leading industry analyst said on Thursday, after sharply cutting his estimate of the coming year's harvest.
Li Qiang, president of Shanghai JC Intelligence (JCI), told Reuters he expected China's corn consumption to grow to 160 million tonnes in the year to September 2011 from 155 million tonnes in 2009/2010, while production would only reach 153 million tonnes.