Pretension was writ large over last week's Nato summit in Lisbon, as the summiteers announced a four-year transition plan for Afghanistan that envisions an end to ISAF combat operations by December 2014 after transfer of all security responsibilities to the Afghan national army.
Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told journalists that the transition will move upwards from towns and cities to districts and provinces till the entire country is controlled by Afghans themselves. Adding a grand gesture, he asserted "we have today launched a process through which Afghans will once again be masters of their homes."
The problem is that Nato is in no position to make the 'process' work. It does not control most of Afghanistan, and, therefore, cannot hand over to the Afghan Army what it does not have.
The Pentagon's biannual report to US Congress, covering the period between April 1 and September 30, of this year concedes that "the insurgency has proven resilient with sustained logistics capacity and command and control." At another point it notes that the Taliban are resilient, adaptable and sophisticated. The report, however, tries to shift some of the blame for the deteriorating situation on to the politicians, saying Taliban fighters are exploiting moves among Nato countries to withdraw combat forces. Indeed, the announcement of a withdrawal timetable tells the Afghan people that Nato has lost the war, and hence whether or not they like the Taliban, it would be safe for them not to be seen siding with the Kabul government.
But the war has dragged on for nine long years, and yet, there is no sign of it turning in favour of the US and its allies. Meanwhile, it is losing support in all the countries that have contributed troops to ISAF. Some of the smaller Nato members have already pulled out their troops, others are getting impatient. Canadian combat forces are due to return home next year. The US itself remains committed to its earlier plan to begin troop drawdown in July next year, despite Nato having set the withdrawal date for December 2014. Vice President Joe Biden explained that just because 2014 is the drop-dead date, "it does not mean we'll have anywhere near 100,000 troops in 2013... Beginning in the summer of 2011, we're going to begin transition". Withdrawal timetables are rarely indicative of success.
The US and its allies have lost the war, necessitating redefining of the war aims in Afghanistan. The objective no longer is to keep the Taliban out of Kabul, but to destroy al Qaeda and its safe haven in Afghanistan. For sometime, US military and intelligence officials have been saying that al Qaida presence has diminished greatly in Afghanistan. They insist that it no longer has any operating base in Afghanistan, and that the remaining al Qaeda leaders and militants have shifted to Pakistan, where Predator drones are taking care of them. All of this implies that the mission in Afghanistan has been accomplished. The aim at this point in time is to declare success and find a face-saving exit.
Things have entered a phase which, in political parlance is known as 'hot negotiations': fighting and talking at the same time to reach a favourable settlement. Backed by the US, President Hamid Karzai has already been engaged in negotiations with important factions of the Taliban. He has been holding discussions with leaders from the so-called Quetta Shura - leadership council of the Afghan Taliban - as well as the powerful and hard-line Haqqani Network, which is said to be operating out of its Northern Waziristan sanctuary.
American officials acknowledge that talks are under way between the Karzai government and Taliban leaders. At least in one reported case, a member of the Haqqani family also participated in the ongoing discussions. Since the Taliban are 'resilient', they can talk from a position of strength, and do some hard bargaining.
Which is why the US has kept pressure on Pakistan to carry out military operation in North Waziristan. Reports also say it has asked the powers-that-be if it could expand drone strikes to Quetta where, it insists, the core Taliban leadership, the so-called Quetta Shura, is based.
To say the least, it is the height of its imperial hubris for the US to think that it can fire missiles into one of our major urban centres and kill at will. Sad as it is, our own government encouraged such utter disrespect for Pakistani lives when it allowed drone attacks in our tribal areas that have killed hundreds of innocent people. In this case, though our servile rulers, always eager to please Washington, could ill-afford to allow drone strikes in a provincial metropolis. So the Foreign Office spokesman emphatically declared at a media briefing, "We will never allow this to happen." Never, indeed.
The situation is going to get uglier and bloodier before it gets better. The US will continue to exert pressure on Pakistan to do its fighting - like it has been doing thus far - demanding military operation in North Waziristan and also some sort of action in Quetta. Pakistan needs to remain focused on its own concerns and interests, weighing its options carefully. Our top priority ought to be the safety and security of our people. If that requires going into the extremists-infested North Waziristan we should do so. But if we deem that unnecessary or hazard-prone, we should stay out and adopt an alternative strategy to get rid of the scourge of violent extremists, who have wrought death and destruction all over this country.
Blowback from the Afghan war has already cost us over 30,000 lives. We must not accept any new responsibility that puts our own people in the harm's way. Also, we should never lose sight of the fact that the US has the choice to get up and leave if and when the going gets bad. We have no such choice, and, therefore, must not antagonise the Afghan Taliban. It is for the Afghans to decide what should be the terms of reconciliation in their country. It, in fact, is in the interest of not only Pakistan but Afghanistan's other neighbours as well to stop interfering in that unfortunate country. An Afghanistan at peace with itself is what everyone in this region should seek and support, no matter what the outsiders may want us to do.
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