SPOTLIGHT: Will a lame-duck PPP government limp through the remaining two years?: Are we witnessing the start of a two-year election campaign?-I

The last two weeks saw the spectacle of politicians of nearly all hues running around each other in ever tighter circles. The issue was not any principle of politics, morality or governance.
Some appeared to be running around just to retain the goodies they were already in possession of and enjoying, thanks to the political position bestowed on them by millions of hapless voters - luxurious living, big bungalows, cars galore, any number of servants, free security at home and on the road, expensive foreign junkets (expense paid trips) - plus numerous chances of making a fast buck to be stowed away in safe havens abroad for the "rainy" day once the "spring" season was over and had been milked for what it was worth.
Other politicians were out to add more to what they already had using the clout of their numbers in the Parliament, the Senate and the Assemblies. Did anyone hear of any clearly enunciated and understood principles (coming under discussion during countless man hours of dialogue between party leaders) as the basis for political pacts and coalitions?
A 2-year long election campaign starting?
From the looks of the vigour with which every political party has started political maneuvers, it almost looks like the beginning of a (probably) long or (possibly) short election campaign. In its dying throes, PMLQ is thrashing about to form alliances or to extract the maximum price for its current numbers which are an accident of recent history.
Its survival beyond the next elections as a meaningful political force is doubtful. JUI (F) is trying to live down its inglorious past by adopting popular postures. Which way will the wily leader of JUI (F) tilt, will keep everyone guessing! MQM may face a combined opposition in Karachi and suffer a small or medium sized dent in its supposedly impregnable position in the Metropolis.
A PMLN-JI-PTI principled grouping could be a potent combination across the country and not just in Karachi if it comes about against heavy odds. On the other hand prospects of a PPP-MQM-ANP coalition regrouping cannot be ruled out despite current differences among them, which don't appear to amount to much anyway. PPP will test political waters in a big way for the first time in what may be called the Zardari era and may experience a rude awakening. Long inaction has reduced PML-N's status almost to a Punjab party which could hurt it in the next elections. Let us look at the two main players in some detail in today's column (part one).
Nawaz League finally unshackled?
Suddenly this month Nawaz Sharif appears to have woken up from his half sleep (politically speaking) and has increased his politicking noise. This has naturally revived questions of why and wherefore about his political inactivity in recent past and the on-again-off-again party noises about "reorganisation of PMLN at grassroots and party elections at all levels".
For the past one year, almost every two months we heard from the MLN party headquarters news about imminence of reorganisation. However instead of forming an empowered committee to begin action with a firm schedule, it was said grandly that the party chief had been entrusted with the task. No specifics were given, no dates mentioned, no landmarks identified and to put it crudely but accurately "no nothing" was the outcome! The one-man-show continues. The dynasty question will not by wished away, either.
The "deal" question will not die down
We have commented several times in these columns in recent months on this phenomenon. Three reasons have been put forward on and off for absence of fulsome political action by PMLN in general and by its guru Nawaz Sharif in particular: Trips to London for treatment of a member of the family or to attend to his alleged business affairs in the same metropolis and his commitments to Saudi Royal family to stay out of current politics for a rumoured period of ten years now ended as per the rumour. This last was supposed to be part of a "deal" to which he was a party with Musharraf and an overseeing scion of the Saudi royal family.
In return it was said, he was allowed to leave the country and live comfortably abroad and allegedly to continue his business activity in Saudi Arabia with Saudi help. MLN spokesmen go to considerable lengths in denying that there was a deal. However, in the face of statements from Saudi sources giving specifics of the deal, the denials chip away at the credibility of the party and its chief.
Is "coming clean" an option?
The "deal" question is not the only credibility question the PMLN will face as it goes politicking or electioneering. The infamous attack on CJP Sajjad Ali Shah's Supreme Court during his reign, and even more damaging, the Saifur Rahman episode will both keep resurfacing to dog Nawaz Sharif's return to active politics and campaigning for the next elections.
He and his party will also have to answer questions about his wealth and income juxtaposed with (put next to) the taxes he has paid on them. Some of the cases pending since long against Nawaz and his family will sooner than later come into focus. Can Nawaz "come clean" and yet survive in politics is a moot question which must actually follow another question: can he muster the courage? If that is any consolation to PMLN, the other big party, PPP is in an even worse shape after three inglorious years in power! However to be fair PMLN's performance as the main opposition was equally inglorious! It has been protective of a manifestly corrupt government and has failed miserably to agitate strongly issues that needed to be agitated inside the parliament and outside it.
PPP in disarray
Disillusionment with the present leadership continues to gather pace in PPP? Aitzaz Ahsan is aloof. His advice is routinely ignored by Zardari. The Barrister sits back watching party pranks with amusement while presumably making good money in his law practice. The situation is not new to him; he was ignored by Benazir as well since her return (though for different reasons) during the time he was in highly favourable eye of an admiring public, leading the Lawyers' Movement from the front while fighting CJP Chaudhry's case in the Courts on a Rupee one fee.
BB never liked too much limelight on a party man while Zardari has no ear for sane legal advice. Raza Rabbani, another respected name in the party was bypassed for Chairmanship of the Senate and does not appear to see eye to eye with PPP policies on many matters. Zardari appears cool towards him and he appears cool towards Zardari. Safdar Abbasi and Naheed Khan have become more vocal against President Zardari's policies and postures, almost in open revolt.
Sherry broke ranks when she resigned from the Ministry and was removed as party spokesperson in swift retaliation. She was justifiably further miffed recently when an attack on her house was engineered by supposedly PPP workers. At worst disgruntled elements will keep speaking out against PPP's present leadership and at best they will sit back, watch and wait!
The credibility issue
PPP spokespersons are having a tough time defending President Zardari in TV debates and have themselves fast lost credibility in the process. That is not new but their discomfiture appears to be on the rise. The PPP government under Asif Zardari and front man PM Gilani appears content to live with near-zero credibility. It is funny to see PPP spokespersons demanding of other debaters in TV discussions that they use respectful language when speaking of the President who they pompously remind everyone, is also the Commander in Chief of Pakistan's Armed Forces.
In reply an Anchor remarked in effect though not in exactly those words: "We are being polite enough in not calling him Mister ten percent or other derogatory epithets which are being freely being applied to him by politicians and officials in Pakistan and abroad"!
Remarkable tolerance for corruption
The "new" PPP had three years in which to have earned for itself a niche in people's hearts. That these years have been lost no one will doubt. Starting with a deficit of credibility, the government has only reinforced that deficit by not only doing nothing to reduce corruption in the government and the business enterprises controlled by it but by actually seeming to abet in increasing the level of corruption. High positions in the party and the government are increasingly the prerogative of those who are themselves facing corruption charges.
Appointment of people with poor service records or, what is worse, with known background of corruption on the one hand and sidelining of functionaries known for their honest and efficient service record became the hallmark of the PPP government under President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani. Hardly a week passed without some new scandal making headlines. Mishandling, deliberate or otherwise, of various corruption cases is routine. Selection of corrupt people for lucrative and responsible positions and their subsequent withdrawal under Courts' directives has been another feature of governance under PM Gilani.
BB assassination
Handling of BB assassination by the PPP government will continue to dog PPP leadership during the next election campaign in no small way. Its acts of omission: (among many others, not following up on the remarks in the UN report about some of the present-day leading lights of PPP), half-hearted, almost reluctant follow up of the case and likewise its acts of commission (preventing post-mortem of the body) again among many others will not be swept under the carpet.
It is particularly shocking to know (a recent revelation by the Doctor attending to BB after the attack) that BB was alive when she finally reached the hospital after considerable delay. The car which was standing by to carry her quickly to a hospital in just such an emergency was no longer at hand, having been allegedly commandeered by some leading lights of the present Government. Will not everyone especially PPP rank and file, continue to raise legitimate questions for PPP leaders to answer?
'Drone duplicity'
The PPP government is seen as subservient to American diktat and as party to American operations in Pakistan, in particular the continuing Drone attacks which have killed nearly 2,000 civilians - non-participant men, women and children - against just three dozen or so al Qaeda men reported killed by hundreds of missiles fired from above.
The Government's duplicity in the matter is likely to be a major election issue. Remember WikiLeaks revelation about Drones and PM Gilani? The government's "bystander" role in the war against terror is a much talked about subject which brings no credit to it. Army is fighting this war without Civilian government's guidance leave alone any meaningful participation by it.
Rich-poor gap
Ostentatious lifestyle of the rulers on the one hand and increasing number of suicides due to extreme poverty on the other, are a daily reminder of the callousness and insensitivity of our rulers. Their alibi that they inherited many of the financial problems from the previous government might have carried some weight if they were seen to be taking even elementary steps to improve things, which is not the case.
Similarly, the excuse of the floods having placed a huge burden on the economy would have been effective as an excuse for the difficult situation faced by the common man, had the government been seen moving on a war footing to provide relief and rehabilitation to the flood affected people which is again not the case.
The unprecedented floods that engulfed a quarter of the population offered another failed opportunity to the government to win popular favour by hard, relentless, honest rehabilitation work. There will certainly be a lot of talk about these at all levels in the days and months that follow. In the second part of this column we will take a look at the prospects of half a dozen other political parties that will figure to a greater or lesser degree in the next elections.
(Continued) ([email protected])