Nuclear power to the rescue

The power crisis continues with even experts coming up with strange solutions and also reasons why those are not being implemented by the concerned. The most common of the solutions being propagated, are to the effect that the losses must end, mismanagement should be no more, coal needs to replace all other fuels and lastly that solar and wind power holds the key to redemption.
Unfortunately, none of these armchair expert understand the true dynamics of the sector. And probably this remains the main reason for the non-implementation of all the above solutions. Information about the POL import bill for 2010-11 financial year tells us that the bill for the same could hit its highest mark of US dollar 12.5 billions in case the crude oil prices stayed around US dollar 90 per barrel.
The oil import bill could even break this barrier if the prices jump as expected. This back-breaking figure leads us to the conclusion that somehow we have to be weaned from using oil for power generation and to switch over to gas (if available) or to coal (though it would need both time and effort to convert) or to wind and solar (long way off) or to some other fuel.
The Chairman of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission's statement of January 2011 provides us with another source to think about this. That more than 10 nuclear power plants would be established in the country with a capacity of 8800 megawatts further provided satisfaction. More so when both the sixty's vintage 137 mega watts KANUPP and the latest 325 megawatts CHASHNUPP are already providing power to KESC and Pepco respectively.
Delving into the record, we see that the 325 megawatts CHASHNUPP is providing power to Pepco at a very affordable rate of Rs 4.50 per unit against the average of Rs 13.15 per unit for the RFO-fired Genco thermal plants. Comparing the financials of nuclear power with gas-powered thermal stations in the country leads us to the happy conclusion that nuclear power compares favourably with gas fuelled turbines with additional advantages.
It is seen that the issues of transmission losses, cut offs during shortages etc are not there in nuclear power stations. In these plants once replenishment is done, then additional fuelling is not needed for long periods. Besides these plants are much higher availabilities in comparison to other plants.
In fact the average availability of CHASHNUPP has been 160% that of the conventional plants. In view of these advantages, the PAC chairman's announcement, while addressing the 11th annual convocation-2011 of the Karachi Institute of Power Engineering (KINPOE) to the effect that 8800 megawatts is planned to be added by 2030 is most heartening.
In fact, this level of addition of nuclear power would ensure that the power pricing remains within limit. However, it will be additionally beneficial if on the basis of national policy, the figure of 8800 megawatts is increased to 20,000 megawatts through addition of latest forth generation 1000 megawatts plus power plant.
As addition of nuclear power, equalling 20,000 megawatts during the coming 2 decades is ambitious keeping the past as a reference, there would be a requirement to surmount all possible difficulties likely to be faced, which may include accessibility to the plants itself, arrangement for the training of the right kind of technical resource, availability of long-term finance and lastly the sustainability of operations through secure operations.
For all this the relevant authorities/institutions will have to be geared up appropriately. The UETs will arrange for the required change in their present syllabi and curriculum along with attracting trained faculty from amongst the Pakistani expatriates and even foreigners, extreme build up/adaptive reuse of heavy industry inclusive of all of its constituent industries, provision for taking up of the project in the national budget from now onwards and lastly of the empowerment of the sponsoring agencies.
All the above is not difficult at all and can be arranged but only if the provision of 20,000 megawatts of nuclear power gets merged in the national power source. As the various lobbies in Pakistan may come up with their variation of solutions, a national conference of experts should also be called.
The conference should be attended by experts with bipartisan approach while understanding the dynamics of the viable and sustainable power system. The conference will have to understand that viability of the sector depends upon the induction of various types of generation without any dependence on one particular fuel, especially refined furnace oil.
The conference must also understand that the requirements of base load demand differs from peak loads and that alternate energy fired plants have a very low availability and thus cannot be called upon to provide for sustained operations day in and day out. Indigenization and issues of reduction in import bills may also feature in the proposed conclave. Once the conference firms up the recommendation, then the same without any hitch, need to be accepted as a policy. Consequently all out effort is suggested to be made in order to induct 20,000 megawatts of the nuclear power in the country by 2030.