Numbers do matter

In any functioning democracy numbers do matter. In Pakistan today, if some distortions abound in allocation of resources, electoral misrepresentations and employment opportunities, the principal reason is fudged figures, intentionally or for lack of oversight, as to how many we the Pakistanis are. In fact, the 10-year cycle for census has been often disturbed as the last census was held in 1998.
So, now that the Sixth Population and Housing Census has been launched the criticality of the exercise in terms of its fallout on national planning over the next decade cannot be overlooked. The first phase of the exercise started all over the country on Tuesday, in that between April 5 and April 19 the staff on census duty will mark household numbers and the Computerised National Identity Card (CNIC) of the head of each house and family will be recorded. In the second phase, starting in August-September, the population census will be done, possibly with the help of the military. But in some sensitive tribal areas, like South Waziristan, Khyber and Kurram agencies the security officials will help the enumerators under the overall guidance of Political Agents.
In order to ensure the accuracy of the national census, the figures collected by the staff on census duty must be counter-checked with Nadra Database for integrity. The accuracy of population count is critical as lot of distribution of finances, services, employment opportunities and political representation take place on the basis of population. For instance, the number of seats a province gets in the National Assembly depends upon its population. Article 51(5) of the Constitution requires that "... seats in the National Assembly shall be allocated to each province, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Federal Capital on the basis of population in accordance with the last preceding census officially published'. Then, there is the Federal Divisible Pool, which is predominantly distributed on the basis of population.
Therefore, no wonder there is this lingering tendency to project inflated population figures. To what extent the census collectors would be able to come up with accurate figures of populations, households including housing units, commercial and non-commercial, and other non- residential units is indeed a tough job, but its essentiality in any case cannot be disregarded.
Like many other developing countries Pakistan's peculiarities tend to make census counting all the more difficult. First of all, Pakistan has relatively high population growth rate and this challenge is complicated by the fact that over time while mortality rate has gone down, the productive segment of people has acquired a greater number. Then there is the issue of rather heightened rate of migration from rural to urban areas, a rate that varies from province to province.
In Sindh, apprehensions have been expressed that 'illegal immigrants and migrants would also be counted', and at the same time 'it is feared that the indigenous people might not be included in the census'. Also, in the flood-affected areas of southern Punjab and Sindh and in the tribal region huge dislocations have taken place. How would the census authorities come up to meet this challenge is a challenge by itself. Add to these dilemmas the fact that all the Pakistanis do not have CNICs and one would realise the difficulties in collecting near-accurate population and household figures. But this should not be the cause of any further delay in conducting the Sixth Population and Housing Census. And, there should be no doubt that without proactive co-operation of the people the census exercise will remain deficient and incomplete.