China shares rose on light volume on Tuesday helped by defensive sectors, though may follow Hong Kong stocks lower as investors persistently move money out of commodity-related sectors on uncertainty over the growth outlook. Utilities, in particular independent power producers (IPPS), outperformed on expectations that power shortages in China would boost demand while a stall in the commodity rally continued to weigh on cyclical stocks such as oil and coal producers.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended down 0.4 percent as large cap financials shed early gains despite Chinese banks reporting robust first-quarter results last week. The China Enterprises Index of top locally listed mainland companies fell 0.8 percent.
In China, the Shanghai Composite Index ended up 0.7 percent at 2,932.2 but A-share turnover at 9.6 billion yuan remained 20 percent below the average over the past month, suggesting a lot of investors were cautious about participating in markets. "The rebound today is not supported by volume, so it's likely to be a short-term rebound after a sharp dip in some sectors," said Cao Xuefeng, head of research at Huaxi Securities in Chengdu. The Hong Kong utilities sector sub-index was the only sector to end in positive territory on the day. Materials and energy were the top drags.
"Equity volumes across the board are quite weak. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people right now are sitting on cash," said John Mar, regional head of sales trading at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong. Mar said some clients had preferred to take bets off the table, expressing concern over China's underperformance and the movement of copper prices, often considered a barometer of global economic growth, in the opposite direction to precious metals.
According to Daiwa Capital, Hong Kong, Philippines and Thailand were the only markets to have recorded consistent inflows over the past four weeks, putting these markets most at risk should investor sentiment weaken. China Resources Power led the charge among Chinese IPPs, jumping 5.3 percent on over 3.5 times its average 30-day volume. The stock is up 7 percent so far this year after declining 9 percent in 2010.
China Resources Power has heavy exposure to Jiangsu province along the mainland's eastern coast which has been hit by lack of adequate power supplies. About 39 percent of the company's total capacity is spent on the province, the highest share among listed peers, Daiwa analysts said in a note.
In a report released last week BNP Paribas forecast severe power shortages, particularly in the Jiangsu and Shandong provinces in China, to lift power demand while possible tariff hikes would benefit producers. The utilities sub-index in Hong Kong was up 9 percent since mid-March to its highest levels in three and a half years. However, the strong gains in a short period of time suggested that near-term profit-taking is a risk as investors switch in and out of sectors.
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