Intimidating predictions

Responding to a query, Environment Minister Samina Ghurki informed the National Assembly late last month that the average annual temperature in Pakistan has risen by 0.6 C°. As per a February 2010 report prepared by the Planning Commission's Task Force on Climate Change, she told the House, the average temperature is projected to increase in the range of 1.3-1.5 C° by 2020, 2.5-2.8 by 2050, and 3.9-4.4 C° by 2080. That is a scary forecast.
The likely consequences for human habitations and the economy include increased variability of monsoons, rapid recession of the glaciers and resultant floods and droughts, silting of dams, water shortages, sea intrusion and its negative impact on mangroves and fish breeding grounds. Then there would be cyclonic activity. These predictions may be exaggerated considering that climate science is based on possible scenarios rather than facts. However, there is enough evidence to prove that global warming is a reality, and the industrialised nations are responsible for causing it by producing high levels of greenhouse gases.
Pakistan itself generates negligible carbon emissions. A more immediate source of threat to its environment is the fast-growing industrial activity in its two neighbouring nations, India and China. Notably, in the climate change negotiations, ongoing for a while under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the developed and developing countries are haggling over what could be an acceptable carbon print for either group. Because of low industrial activity, Pakistan has to worry little, at this point in time, about its own contribution to the problem. That, in fact, puts it in an advantageous position to adopt greener energies and technologies.
As for the money in these hard times, the government can benefit from outside funding that is available for such projects provided the government itself is prepared to bear some of the cost itself. It seems there is some movement in that direction. The minister mentioned that a draft National Policy on Climate Change has been developed in collaboration with the UN Joint Programme on Environment, and would shortly be presented to the federal cabinet for approval. She also talked of a National Plan of Action based on the guidelines of the national policy.
Claiming that phasing out of lead from petrol has been achieved and sulphur content of diesel reduced, Ghurki declared the introduction of CNG in cars and buses as a big success. She disclosed that a project of launching some 8000 CNG buses is in the process of approval/implementation. All of these measures are important for reducing carbon emissions. However, as regards increasing the use of CNG in public transport, the plan looks good on paper only. For the unpleasant reality is that CNG shortages have assumed crisis proportions in the largest population province, Punjab. If there is not enough CNG available then there is no point in including CNG buses in the cleaner environment plan of action. It is about time, our policymakers ensure that any plan of action is accompanied by a fool-proof implementation strategy.