Liffe August white sugar closes $14.50 lower at $618.50 a tonne on Thursday, weighed by a bearish supply outlook with analysts projecting a significant global surplus in 2011/12. Liffe July robusta coffee ended $18 higher at $2,549 a tonne with the discount to the arabica market narrowing from recent record levels.
Liffe September cocoa ends 2 pounds lower at 1,890 pounds a tonne. Pace of exports from top grower Ivory Coast appears to be picking up. Dealers noted Rabobank projected a global surplus of 5.7 million tonnes in 2011/12 (October/September) and revised up its 2010/11 (October/September) surplus estimate to almost 3 million tonnes on Thursday.
"This is in line with other statisticians expectations of a large surplus and while access to supplies is problematic in the short term, it seems the sugar will be available eventually," brokers Sucden Financial said in a market note.
Analysts at Brazilian bank Itau BBA forecast an even larger 2011/12 global sugar surplus of 6-8 million tonnes, up from a surplus of around 3 million tonnes in 2010/11.
Charles Funnell, a soft commodities manager with fund manager Aisling Analytics, said the 20 cent a lb level could provide a floor for the market.
"The market has been now almost 10 months above 20 cents and this has given a firm price signal to producers to plant cane," Funnell said.
"Many last year saw difficulty in breaching the 20 cents barrier. Now there are many who see this as an absolute floor.
"Perceptions change with time at altitude."
A note from Commerzbank reiterated the risk of high coffee prices remaining, saying: "The shortage of high-quality coffee beans is likely to persist and arabica prices should stay at a high level."
Cargill hopes by the end of June to ship cocoa that has been stuck in its warehouses during Ivory Coast's political crisis, the US agribusiness company said on Wednesday.
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