The euro should remain vulnerable to negative headlines about Greece's debt next week, but will likely trade within a range as investors hesitate to sell the euro zone single currency with a key European Central Bank meeting around the corner.
--- Euro vulnerable to Greece debt woes and Spain election
--- Fed policy gives dollar strength limited traction
--- Domestic and overseas economic data could stay sentiment
While the euro dropped about 4 percent against the dollar in May, interest rate differentials have largely worked in favour of the currency and it is up 6 percent year-to-date. While the euro's fragility was made evident on Friday when ratings agency Fitch downgraded Greece and Norway suspended a grant payment to the country, it will likely remain range bound over the near term with the ECB widely expected to communicate plans for another rate hike at its meeting on June 2.
Friday's negative Greece news caused the euro to sink to a session low of $1.4139 on trading platform EBS before paring losses on a commodities rebound. Investors are focused on the key $1.40 level for the euro. "The market lacks conviction, so any dollar gains we may see next week will not so much be about the dollar strength but about euro weakness," Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.
Chandler said the euro will likely trade between $1.4050 and $1.4350 next week. "The euro should remain in this range because few will want to sell aggressively ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting." Spain's regional election this weekend could affect the euro.
"European officials have been successful in establishing a firewall around Spain and insulating it from the crisis in the peripheral. That firewall may be tested shortly," Chandler said. Spain's Socialist government faces major losses to the center-right opposition Popular Party, and analysts are wary that there could be the potential for unearthing of unknown financial problems.
In late afternoon New York trading, the euro was at $1.4171, down 1 percent on trading platform EBS, although on the week it was still up 0.7 percent. The dollar has enjoyed a broad-based rebound recently fuelled by a massive unwinding of short US dollar positions and a pullback in riskier assets. The value of the dollar's net short position fell to $20.01 billion in the week ended May 17 from $27.68 billion the week before, according to CFTC and Reuters calculations.
For the dollar to make a more sustainable push higher, investors will want to see the Federal Reserve moving closer to more normal monetary policy, according to Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. "While additional near-term strength in the dollar is likely, especially if Europe's debt problems take a turn for the worse, its upside will continue to be limited as long as the Fed remains content to leave lending rates at rock-bottom levels."
Traders also said news Hungary has agreed with banks to fix a below-market rate on Swiss franc-denominated mortgages has pressured the euro/Swiss franc pair. Hungary will use an exchange rate of 180 forints per franc, far below the current market rate of 215.84.
So far the 1.24 level has held in the euro/Swiss franc pair, currently down 1.3 percent at 1.2442. The euro also traded 0.9 percent lower against the yen at 115.74 yen although it stayed well above a recent two-month low near 113.40. The dollar was up against a basket of currencies, gaining 0.8 percent to trade at 75.700, though it stayed below a recent peak of 76.00 struck earlier this week. The dollar was flat against the yen at 81.58 yen. Next week ushers in a slew of global economic data. In the US, data on durable goods and a second look at first-quarter gross domestic product will be the main focus. In Europe, the ECB will be watching developments with German HICP inflation and euro area M3 money supply next week.
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