Pakistan can not achieve its target of 15.5 million bales because cotton producing cities of Badin, Gharo, Sangarh, Mirpur Khas and Tando Muhammad Khan were flooded due to incessant rain in these areas and meteorological pundits have forecast more rain in coming days causing more losses to cotton crop.
Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA)'s executive Council member Ehsan-ul-haq said that the floodwater destroyed standing crop on 2.5 million acres of land in five districts, Tando Allahyar, Sangarh, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot and Tharparkar which are considered hub of cotton and some others are the major crops. Standing cotton crop on one million acres land suffered losses of about Rs 48.75 billion, he added. He said that Pakistan had achieved the cotton production target in 2004 when it attained the production of 1,43,47,000 bales due to fair weather and no viral as well as pest attack.
In 2010, Pakistani cotton production was assessed at 14 million bales but flood waters destroyed and estimated 700,000 acres of cotton, 200,000 acres each of rice and cane, 500,000 tons of wheat, 300,000 acres of animal fodder, and 200,000 herd of livestock and it attained 11.7 million bales production.
He feared that Pakistan may lose 10 percent of its cotton production if Punjab saved from the rains and flood. In spite of that government should prepare the Trading Corporation of Pakistan for the purchase of at least 2 million bales to stabilise the prices in local market and to save the growers from the losses.
He said that growers should not be left at the mercy of textile millers and middlemen. He said that though the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Minfa) has set a domestic target of 15 million bales, up 28 percent since last year, for FY12.yet recent rains had upset these targets.
It is believed that the estimates will play a major role in the determination of cotton prices in both in the international and domestic market, which hit their peaks ($2.43 per pound and Rs 13,000 per maund, respectively) during the third quarter in FY11.
Since then prices have fallen mainly due to a slowdown in Chinese mill demand and in anticipation of improved supply next year. 'Resultantly, we foresee that stand alone spinners will be most affected', said Ehsan-ul-haq, adding that composite and standalone weavers can benefit from lower yarn prices.
According to the latest estimates published by United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), world cotton output is forecast to jump to 123.8 million bales in FY12. If this scenario materialises, it will constitute a record output level, exceeding the previous record of 121.8 million bales achieved in FY07. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that the world consumption is projected to augment to 119.5 million bales in FY12 (compared to 115.5 million bales in FY11) driven by global economic recovery alongside an improved production outlook.
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