Sterling relinquished gains against the dollar on Friday as the US currency benefited from safe-haven demand after data showing US jobs growth at a standstill confirmed economic weakness and raised concerns about the global economic outlook The pound hit a session trough of $1.6172, edging towards a three-week low after data showed no new US jobs were created in August. The pound is poised to end the week 1 percent lower versus the dollar.
While sterling moves were largely driven by external factors on Friday, analysts saw the risk of more selling if domestic data next week shows continued sluggishness in the UK economy. This could raise speculation that the Bank of England may need to consider more quantitative easing for the economy, which could sting the UK currency.
Some said a bigger-than-expected fall in UK services PMI due on Monday may be the catalyst for more selling next week, while acknowledging that fairly consistent demand from Asian sovereign names and macro funds may keep sterling from falling towards $1.60. "Sterling has been in a downward trend all week against the dollar, and the jobs report pushed Cable lower," said John Hydeskov, currency strategist at Danske.
"We're trying to make a firm break below $1.62, but it's not clear whether this will happen." Data on Friday showing a fall in UK construction sector activity added to signs of weakness in the UK economy. Construction PMI fell to 52.6 in August expanding at its weakest pace since December due to a slowdown in orders.
"We found the details of the survey worrying, with weakness across all components with the exception of the inventories, which does not bode well for survey readings in the months ahead," Morgan Stanley, which recommends bearish Cable positions, said in a note. Focus was on the $1.6110 level, a low hit on August 11, but the technical analysts saw support above that at $1.6120, its 200-day moving average. The euro fell 0.4 percent on the day to 87.76 pence.
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