Talks, trade and Kashmir

Amid reports of fresh overtures from New Delhi of talks with Kashmiri leaders, Syed Ali Gilani, Chairman of a breakaway faction of All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), has said that his group would be ready to discuss any dialogue offer from the Indian government. He told The Indian Express in a recent interview that any such offer would be discussed in the advisory council of the Hurriyat Conference. Other separatist groups working under the umbrella of the main APHC have long been engaged in sporadic rounds of dialogue with New Delhi. Gilani, known as a hard-liner and a proponent of the 'Kashmir benay ga Pakistan (Kashmir will become Pakistan)' line, has always opposed any bilateral discussions. A year ago, he had rejected Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram's offer of talks saying any dialogue with the Indian government could serve only Indian interest. He had averred, "I will not join any talks, whether open or hidden, with New Delhi", adding that he supported tripartite talks among India, Pakistan and the 'true leadership' of Kashmiris provided India accepted Kashmir as a disputed territory, withdrew troops from the Valley, released detained Hurriyat leaders and activists, and repealed draconian laws. Those conditions remain unmet. So what has changed between then and now? Straws in the wind suggest Delhi and Islamabad may be inching towards some sort of a settlement. One indication is the announcement by Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar of the government decision to grant MFN status to India. That though could be a quid pro quo for Indian assurance to give up its opposition within WTO to Pakistan's case for a duty-free access to EU markets. Second, the two countries have agreed to issue businessmen multiple entry visas for a year to boost bilateral trade and commerce. Leader of the Opposition Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan and JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who also heads Parliament's Kashmir Affairs Committee, have strongly criticised the MFN status decision. Readily connecting the concession to Kashmir, they argued that it will not soften Indian stance on the issue. The third important development relates to opening up of India-Afghanistan transit trade route. A recently concluded Pakistan-Afghanistan transit trade agreement allows Afghanistan to send its goods to India but not to import from the other side. So far Pakistan has held back on this matter of vital interest to India. During his visit to New Delhi earlier this month Commerce Minister Amin Fahim told reporters the subject would be discussed at next month's commerce secretaries' talks and that "any decision will be taken after that." The decision may not come soon given Pakistan's longstanding position of linking Kashmir resolution to trade normalisation. Still, the steps in the related areas show a significant level of flexibility in that position. It may amount to over-optimism to see this advancement as a sign of progress on the core issue, yet the possibility cannot be ruled out altogether. Copyright Business Recorder, 2011