It looks so yesterday when oil prices were tipped to go as low as $20/bbl – and not by nobodies, but by the likes of the EIA, and a host of other leading investment houses. Last week, Brent oil traded at $70/bbl, for the first time since December 2014. And now the talk of the town is oil having a realistic chance of breaching $90/bbl in 2018.
Such has been the history of oil price predictions – year after year, that makes experts look like novices. When it is tipped to stay range bound, it moves past the range in a flash, like it never belonged there. The fact of the matter remains oil market still continues to be driven by afterthoughts and to some extent speculation. Demand and supply drivers do no change overnight, yet the predictions keep changing from the best of the lot.
The latest and the most awaited is the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) first short-term energy outlook that offers first glimpses into the 2019 forecasts as well. The EIA now expects Brent crude to average $60/bbl in 2018 and $61/bbl in 2019, having averaged $54/bbl in 2017. Recall that the EIA has been known as the most conservative of predictors, mostly erring on the lower side. Case in point is the EIA’s forecast for 2016 and 2017, which were both off by more than 20 percent.
There are a lot of talks going about rebalancing in the oil market, as the OPEC deal extends to the rest of 2018 and the compliance rates touching 100 percent. This is where many experts opine US shale players will come into play and up the game to bolster production, which will check the prices and would keep them range bound between $55-65/bbl for most of 2018.
This could all be true, especially when Russia is reportedly mulling to rethink its contribution as a non-member participant in the production cut arrangement. But the drop in production could be deeper than what it looks as the Venezuela problem is far from over – and the potential drop could alone more than offset for not only Russia’s likely exit but also for a drop in compliance from members.
More important is the approach adopted by the shale players. They have so far acted wisely and not jumped on the wagon of intensive drilling despite a massive rally in the past four months. They did it last time when prices rallied, and ended up on the losing end. The global demand is expected to grow at a robust pace, and disruptions are plenty to keep prices in check. The other dimension of the 3Ds is the new-found discipline – both amongst OPEC members and the shale producers – which could go a long way to keep oil prices way north of EIA’s $60/bbl forecast.
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