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The regular buying in cotton on the eve of Eid-ul-Azha, despite transportation problem provided in the post Eid session time for happy greetings. On three days trading on domestic market saw resumption of normal activity. Spot rate remained unchanged at Rs 5,450.
WORLD SCENARIO
The major stocks and Euro and more lately Italian conditions have made people apprehensive of recession. Cotton futures hit by fears fluctuated down generally showing strength at times. Meanwhile USDA supply/demand report had nothing to impress.
In Pakistan cotton growers, who were nervous following second deluge in succession appeared encouraged, as seedcotton arrival pace improved. Bickering among various interests over cotton production proves production won't be that short. Good news that EU package for Pakistan barred in WTO will be cleared.
In Egypt local cotton sales went slow despite being best products. High input cost pushed prices higher restraining buyers until sellers reviewed the cost. China has not been enthusiastic about cotton imports. It has been Brazil's customers, buyers of soyabean and iron, report are in the air Brazil will supply cotton to China in much better terms than any other country. America is harvesting lower cotton due to unprecedented drought in Texas where cotton grew and floods in Mississippi.
India is looking toward, China, while Indian relations with Pakistan seemingly are improving fast. The held up MFN status for over two decades is on the verge of being conferred. Pakistan's import through Wagah is encouraging and cheap. Latest, China to import 3.3m tonnes. In India-cotton arrival fell by 30pc in October.
On Monday the NY cotton futures slid to a weak close as index fund rolling put pressure on fibre contracts, while another round of euro zone worries put financial markets on the defensive. The key December cotton contract on ICE Futures US dropped 1.98 cents or by two percent to close at 96.76 cents per lb, moving from 96.51 to 98.96 cents. Total volume traded on Monday hit almost 25,700 lots, about two-thirds over the 30-day norm, preliminary Thomson Reuters data and ICE Futures US data showed.
On Tuesday the US cotton futures settled higher on late investor short-covering, as the market staged a rebound after hitting its downside technical objectives. The key December cotton contract on ICE Futures US rose 0.86 cent to conclude at 97.62 cents per lb, moving from 95.96 to 97.96 cents. Total volume traded on Tuesday hit almost 28,200 lots, more than three-quarters above the 30-day norm, preliminary Thomson Reuters data and ICE Futures US data showed. On a technical level, dealers said the downside targets in cotton used to be the recent low of 96.47 cents. When that was breached in Tuesday's session, independent analyst Mike Stevens in Louisiana said the next target became "the lower end of the Bollinger Band at 95.78 cents." The March cotton contract came to within a hair of hitting 95.78 and then began coming back as the selling spree dried up.
On Wednesday the NY cotton futures settled lower on investor sales and switch trade as macro weakness in Europe spilled into fiber contracts, although late short-covering pared losses. The key December cotton contract on ICE Futures US fell 0.44 cent to conclude at 97.18 cents per lb, moving from 96.62 to 98.18 cents. Total volume traded on Wednesday hit around 20,300 lots, nearly a quarter above the 30-day norm, preliminary Thomson Reuters data and ICE Futures US data showed. Stocks and the euro tumbled on Wednesday as Italian borrowing costs spiked, raising fears the country will be forced to seek a bailout that could overwhelm the euro zone's finances and push the region into recession.
On Thursday the NY cotton futures settled higher on investor buying sparked mainly by news that China bought a large amount of cotton to replenish official stocks. The key December cotton contract on ICE Futures US increased 2.32 cents or by 2.4 percent to finish at 99.50 cents per lb, moving from 96.81 to $1.0078. Total volume traded on Thursday hit around 38,400 lots, which would be the highest since early June and more than double the 30-day norm, preliminary Thomson Reuters data and ICE Futures US data showed.
On Friday the US cotton futures settled a shade lower after being dominated by position-squaring indicating demand for nearby cotton supplies, traders said. "It was a remarkably uneventful day, except that the December cotton contract went up over March, after being initially down earlier this week," said Mike Stevens, an independent cotton analyst in Mandeville, Louisiana.
LOCAL TRADING
The post-holiday session on cotton market was spent in exchanging Eid greetings. The buying took place before Eid holidays, as transportation problem gradually subsided. The spot rate, only day session worked stayed unchanged at Rs 5450. Seed cotton in Sindh dropped by Rs 200 to Rs 1800, while fine quality seed cotton was unchanged at Rs 2400. In Punjab rate was inert at Rs 2200, while better type was lower by Rs 100 to Rs 2500. The time some traders squeezed out from greetings, managed to lift 1200 bales of cotton costing Rs 3800. The sellers tightened belt to fall into business head-on from Friday.
On Friday trading activity was back to normal as traders showed interest in fresh buying. KCA official spot rate was unchanged at Rs 5,450. Prices of seedcotton of low type in Sindh were unchanged at Rs 1800 and rate of fine quality also held the overnight level at Rs 2400 and rates in Punjab were inert at Rs 2200, while rate of good type was at Rs 2500. In ready dealings about 5,500 bales of cotton changed hands at Rs 3,700-5,600.
On Saturday exporters' buying helped the cotton rates to keep firmness. KCA official spot rate was unchanged at Rs 5,450. Prices of seedcotton of both low and best types in Sindh were higher by Rs 100 to Rs 1900-2500 and rates in Punjab were followed the same pattern, gaining Rs 100-200 to Rs 2300-2700. In ready dealings about 22,000 bales of cotton changed hands at Rs 4,200-5,700, they added
BD OBJECTIONS UNFOUNDED
The BD objection has been adequately met and any future nagging should be stopped. The BD objection is that GSP plus status awarded by EU and US to trading partners is not fair. BD is enjoying least - Developed Country (LDC), which Pakistan never objected to. This country had never developed ill feeling when BD was making moves to make place in EU market. The result could be seen BD exports rose to $16 billion a few years back. Speaking about Pakistan, this country has peaked to mere $1.5 billion in clothing sector in a market of $80 billion.
APTMA leader coming back to BD soaring business said your country has already developed strong inroads into EU where Pakistan had its firm food for long. It is happy augury for that country, as it has developed strong inroads into the EU due to its LDC status. The world knows well the gain LDC status confers of the country. Defending Pak position clothing sector products to EU won't yield any significant new investment. The BD clothing sector has grown enough and growing constantly to encounter any setback.
RUSSIANS INVITED TO INVEST IN PAKISTAN
In St. Petersburg Gilani invited Russian investors to benefit from lucrative incentives in Pakistan, as he pointedly referred to country's institutional stability now guaranteed by constitutional amendment and investment regime. May be to leaderships see glimmer the USSR had rushed with hands of friendship stretched after partition even prior to large size India. Pakistan in its innocence had politely scolded, but India took advantage of the vacuum and warmly greeted Russia for obvious reasons.
The fact that St. Petersburg and Pak industrial and commercial hub Karachi have signed partnership protocol. The rhetoric induced Putin to expanding their loose Central Asian alliance to include Pakistan and Iran. We are talking about Pakistan and Iran, which have applied for membership, Russian foreign minister said.
Bilateral relations are particularly important to Russia's attempts to find new Asian clients for energy exports just as European growth stalls. Russia had build alliance as a regional alternative to Nato. Meanwhile latest channel reports said Russian - has formally extended Pak incorporation into Russia's NCO. Gilani said Pakistan attaches great importance to SCO and earnestly hoped in the days to come it will play even a much better role in bringing stability to his side of the world. He cautioned Pak community abroad has to play important role as they are the real representative of the country and their support in building economic and human ties between the two countries was of crucial importance.
TEX INDUSTRIALIST IN PUNJAB HOPE FOR BEST
The textile industry in Punjab had strong apprehension to 90 days gas supply cut during winter. If this apprehension was allowed to go through loss to Pak economy would be tremendous. APTMA Chairman Mohsin Aziz in his welcome address said Punjab was home of 60 percent of the textile industry and any gas curtailment would end up on joblessness, followed by socio-economic problems.
Dr. Asim who had good news up his sleeves boost textile industry leaders by pledging on the occasion for only four days a week interruption of gas supply. He assured that gas supply most likely to be enhanced by another one day. Asim in a pleasant mood said he would be in a position to share good news with the nation about new gas finds in Sindh within next 10 days. The apprehensive textile leaders engrossed in talks with the Federal Minister for Petroleum turned pretty hopeful to the extent that APTMA group leader Gohar Ejaz prompted members to give standing ovation to Dr Asim. The industrialists should raise their hands in prayers for.
RUSSIA ABOUT TO CLINCH WTO DEAL
As Russia clinches final deal to join WTO a couple of leading people instrumental spoke in near whisper, but the WTO chief who would see in every ripple deal close to be struck, is mum rather speechless. Russia, a giant country, which like USA would have proved leading countries in bestowing smiles on the lips of deprived ones, queued in wait for long 18 years, reason: War-a five day war. Any way, the wait seems to have boiled down - and unless untoward happens December 2011 (15-17) ministerial meeting at which Russia's membership is due to be put up for a vote. Georgia, Russia issue this neared all is well point, Russia has already ironed out disputes with European Union and has no direct trade issue with the US-China is also on board.
But the US Congress has still not revoked the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment - a piece of cold war-era trade legislation that strips most favoured nation status from countries impeding the emigration of Jews to the wet. Apart from similar snags, Russia's joining WTO will - (may) bring global communities closer to a more comfortable life.
How Russia is to gain and how much is still being calculated by economists. The WB estimates that WTO accession may add up to 11 percent to Russia's GDP. Going into unnecessary details are not likely to help in calculating and estimating where the guest for "smiles" will last. Unless advanced scientific knowledge and technologies are liberally shared among nations, which at the moment seems unlikely, arranging smiles on down trodden faces is an impossibility.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2011

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