Neither kosher nor halal

Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources had devised a natural gas load management plan after it took into account the supply-demand gap in a transparent manner and under a structured process. The plan was duly approved by the Economic Committee of the Cabinet (ECC). Shockingly, the ECC decision was reverted by the Prime Minister the very next day for no plausible reason other than a contrarian advice that he had received from some quarters on the subject. Decisions of ECC can only be reviewed or reverted by Full Cabinet in a follow-up meeting; ECC decisions cannot be reversed even by the Prime Minister or the President under the rules of business in a parliamentary system as both of them do not enjoy a veto power - a preserve of head of state/government in a Presidential system. Strict adherence to a transparent and structured process to deal with shortages becomes the sine qua non or an essential element in a country beset by corruption and cronyism. These days, newspapers are full of stories of corruption and favouritism. Superior courts are seized with numerous corruption cases and the honourable judges have been seen showing a profound sense of frustration over the state of affairs. Pakistan is increasingly becoming a country of shortages primarily due to poor management of available resources - natural or otherwise. Due to institutional weaknesses, our governments have not even been able to handle an occasional surplus since we seem to be running the country in accordance with personal whims and fancies of people at the helm. Pakistan is facing a shortfall of 1,496 mmcfd natural gas this winter - 1,216 mmcfd shortfall is envisaged in the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited system while 280 mmcfd in the system of Southern Gas Company. It was precisely for this reason that a gas load management plan was sorely needed. The plan envisaged to provide feed stock of gas to two of four fertiliser factories on the SNGPL system at one time. As it was not possible to shut off one company, out of the four, due to a court stay order - the others apparently approached the top bosses for an executive order to ensure that supplies are not shut off to their plants as well. Protecting profitability of their companies stands to reason. However, the manner in which the ECC decision on gas load management was annulled was neither kosher nor halal. In a democracy, governments do tend to shun unpopular moves. It is quite apparent that the users of urea fertiliser, ie, farmers, are hurting for big time now due to nearly doubling of its retail price. At the same time, one expects the decision-makers to appreciate the value of clarity in decision-making because strategic clarity influences decision-making process. Fertiliser shortages will not end overnight nor will the supply side distribution weaknesses vanish. On the other hand, the availability of natural gas molecules cannot be enhanced within a short period of time. Plans for the import of LNG by sea or arrival of natural gas through pipelines from Iran or Turkmenistan are still at paper stage. Therefore, the only option is the need for rightly prioritising the present availability of gas among the users. This newspaper has been consistently advocating that manufacturing, particularly export industry, must get the first priority. Not only do exports provide employment to a large number of skilled and semi-skilled people, but also earn dollars for the country. Pakistan can import both oil and fertiliser provided it has sufficient forex reserves to pay for these or other commodities. Therefore, the first priority for availability of both electricity and natural gas should be the export sector without a weekly break. This sector must also be provided with incentives to invest in efficient utilisation of energy and plug wastages as both these inputs are increasingly becoming dearer. Next in line in the energy corridor after textiles and power sector should be urea manufacturers and commercial users of natural gas. Usage of CNG at least in private vehicles needs to be banned without any further loss of time. Even domestic users can be made to ration their gas usage or shift to bottled gas. The ruling coalition is dependent on rural votes for re-election. Voters from the farm belt may be more important than the urban electorate as the number of seats in the Assembly is always big. But the urban voters are more vocal, better organised and can resort to agitation, which can bring any government down. Further, urbanisation is part and parcel of economic development; the flow of economic migrants from rural to urban areas cannot be reversed. The growing army of unemployed youths in an economy suffering years' low growth and high inflation could exacerbate social tensions in society, which may help undemocratic forces to once again take over the country in the name of 'restoring political and economic stability'. Copyright Business Recorder, 2011