Winds of change

The threat Pakistan faces from the global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. Recently, Maple Croft, an organisation, which maps over 100 global risks, downgraded Pakistan's ranking on its Climate Change Vulnerability Index from 29 in 2009-10 to 16 this year.
The downgrading has come in the wake of two successive years of unprecedented flooding in Pakistan. These floods, along with the cyclones and earthquakes the country has faced this decade, are alarming signals that Pakistan is at the forefront, and thus more vulnerable, in the battle against climate change. A report published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) earlier this year, placed Pakistan in the list of countries which face the "greatest risk" from changing climate patterns.
Pakistan is not alone in its battle against the reality of climate change. According to a research done for the United Nations by Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), 2010 was the worst year on record for natural disasters in decades. Floods and landslides in China, heat wave in Russia, and deadly earthquake in Haiti added to the overwhelming economic and human cost of these disasters. But most worrisome is the statement given by Margareta Wahlstroem, UN special representative for disaster risk reduction, that this probably is just the beginning of what might be a catastrophic time for the world.
The biggest threat these climate patterns pose to an agrarian country like Pakistan is food insecurity. Food researchers have started indicating the need to diversify vital crops as seasonal patterns are changing. At the moment, the world is dependent on roughly dozen crops with limited strains. Now with rapid changes in climate, farmers are struggling to keep pace in attempts to adapt the crop strains.
The effects of climate change do not comprise empty rhetoric of vague future warnings. They are already affecting Pakistan, the biggest manifestation being the floods of these two years. Last year, with mercury soaring to 53.70° Celsius in Mohenjo Daro, record of highest temperature in the last 90 years was broken. This monsoon, the arid area of Thar in Sindh received an unprecedented rainfall after a 12-month spell of drought. Rapid, illegal deforestation, unchecked urbanisation and melting Himalayan glaciers are further aggravating the situation.
At the moment, Pakistan does not fall in the UNFCCC definition of countries considered "particularly vulnerable" to climate change. The government has been trying to get the definition broadened since these countries will be the first to get funding to cope with climate change. Though the government has been unsuccessful in doing so, it has been able to get some changes incorporated which means that such funding will not only be confined to "particularly vulnerable" countries.
But before we ask for more funding from international agencies, it will be much better to set our house in order and draw a comprehensive strategy how to deal with climate change. Despite its failure in the wake of last year's floods to take preventive measures for the current floods, the government has at least drafted the policy on climate change.
The fate of the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), however, seems in a limbo, since after the 18th Amendment, environmental protection has been devolved to the provinces. It remains to be seen how a national policy will fare amidst the chaos of the administrative transition. Additionally, the policy stresses adaptive measures and resilience focusing on agriculture, water and power sectors. While not undermining the importance of policy measures aimed at these sectors, experts believe urbanisation should have been given equal focus.
Meanwhile, with millions of acres land inundated in Sindh, vast field of crops destroyed, and food prices already at 300 percent increase from two years ago, people are struggling to keep semblance of normality. With cautious optimism, it is hoped that the current and successive governments will not undermine the urgency posed by rapid climate change and will take proactive measures in dealing with this problem before things become irreversible.