Brief recordings

Provinces need to show more trust on others: ex-Chairman IRSA
Pakistan's water woes are hardly new. It is a country where majority of the population depends on agriculture for bread and butter, yet its water economics seem to be heading the wrong way. Though the implications are widely known, there is little clarity on where do the actual problems lie and how to move towards solving them.
In a recent in-depth discussion with BR Research, Rao Irshad Ali Khan, former Chairman of "Indus River System Authority" (currently Member, Punjab) sought to clarify various misconceptions and address issues surrounding water management in the country. Rao Irshad believes that endogenous issues have more to do with Pakistan's water worries.
"From 1976 to 2010, Pakistan has received, on an average, 145 million acre feet (maf) water from its three western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. However, much of this available water is lost every year due to systemic losses and human wastages. On account of seepage and evaporation the losses within the rivers (up to canal heads) range between 12maf to 15maf. Our canal system's absorption capacity of only 103maf is a major handicap. Water course losses are besides these".
The former IRSA Chairman revealed this little-known fact that Pakistan loses roughly 15 percent of its available water down the Arabian Sea every year. "Nearly 31maf water goes down the Kotri barrage annually, mainly in months of July and August. Expert studies have shown that water requirement downstream Kotri Barrage is only 8.6maf annually-5maf bulk water for Kharif season and 3.6maf for mangroves and prevention of land degradation. Hence, over 22maf water is lost to the sea every year".
He highlighted that the main reason behind these losses is that Pakistan's existing water reservoirs can store only 12maf or 8 percent of total available water. "The world average for water storage is 40 percent of available water. We can store the excess 22maf flowing through the Kotri barrage; and that is what is required and lacking."
Mistrust and building new dams Constructing new dams is a huge issue and a consistent source of political nuisance in Pakistan. The former Chairman believes that disputing the location of new dams is a non-starter. "It is only structurally feasible, operationally viable and environmentally suitable to build dams in mountainous areas where our rivers flow from. With two mountain walls already in place, you just need to build a dyke. This serves as natural storage which also limits seepage and evaporation."
To substantiate his argument, the former Chairman stated that building dams in plane areas is the exact opposite of this. "First, it is really difficult and costly to build concrete walls of 200-250 feet, on all four sides, over a large tract of land; secondly, the area surrounding the dam could become a marshland due to seepage and. thirdly, if such a mammoth concrete structure were to break, it would bring destruction to the lives and property of people due to flooding."
There is a dire need for this issue to be understood by a layman, he asserted: "Just as one cannot relocate a sea-port away from the sea, so one cannot move a dam away from a river, and rivers originate from mountainous areas in Pakistan. We need to go beyond this. The existing dams are all located up north, yet there is no issue of misallocation of water. How can building a new dam change the established distribution mechanism?"
There is indeed a deep-rooted mistrust among people of the provinces, however, he feels that "suspecting public needs to realise that no other province or entity can encroach on their fair, agreed-upon water share. Dams are controlled by WAPDA, a federal authority. Releases are controlled by IRSA, which has representations from all four provinces and the Federal Government. There are strong checks and balances in place. I don't think any province has voiced any reservations on this arrangement so far."
He maintained that there cannot be any distribution better than this, where Punjab has given up, on an average 9 percent of its allocated share and Sindh agreed to receive 10 percent less. "The issues have cordially been sorted out since last 36 years".
Government's slow response It appears that too much water has passed under the bridges and barrages, yet there is little action from the Federal Government. The former Chairman wryly highlighted that it's been ages since these dams were identified. "It was in 1953 when Kalabagh Dam was identified, and then in the early '60s, the Mangla and Tarbela dams were identified. It's already too late, but we cannot afford inaction anymore. We must build additional 20maf water storage capacity and IRSA members have recently written to the Prime Minister to address this issue".
Small dams vs. large dams The government is currently looking at building three large dams whose combined water storage capacity would come to roughly 19maf. However, building large dams requires huge investment which the government is constrained to make room for. The total investment required for the three planned dams-Kalabagh, Bhasha and Akhor-comes to around $25 billion and the timeline for completion is up to eight years. In this scenario, some critics argue against large dams and recommend building many small ones.
Former Chairman differed with this viewpoint, stating that only large dams can solve Pakistan's water woes. "Small dams are unviable for a number of reasons. Their water off-take is low; hence they cater only to the demands of local area. Their per acre foot construction cost is up to 20 times that of a large dam. Small dams cannot be constructed alongside a river and cannot generate hydro-power which needs scale."
Viability of new dams Rao Irshad believes that constructing large dams is a sound investment. He maintains that proceeds from hydro-generation, which is actually a by-product of dams, can alone recover investment within five years. "With a hydro-power generation capacity of 6500MW, this year the existing dams produced 31 billion KWh of electricity, and sold it at Rs 10 per KWh. This comes to Rs 310 billion, or $3.6 billion. The hydro capacity of three new dams is expected to be between 7,500MW and 8,000MW. Even at current prices, in five years' time, this translates into $18 billion in electricity sales, sufficient to recoup capital costs".
Besides easing off the chronic energy crisis, the former Chairman is hopeful, new dams would help in irrigating currently-ignored arable lands, too. Moreover, areas like Thar, Thal and Cholistan, which have practically become deserts, could also be irrigated and turned around into fertile lands.
Though he forewarns if new dams are not started immediately, the ongoing projects to expand canal capacities could be jeopardised. "Currently, there are four such projects, one in each province. These projects, once completed, would raise water consumption at canals heads to 114maf from current level of 103maf. However, we won't be having water for these canals if capacity is not added to storage."
Impact on floods mitigation That is not all. Creating adequate storage can also be instrumental in avoiding the floods. "Dams serve well in contingencies and mitigate riverine floods. Last year's floods went on for about 120 hours and Pakistan's irrigation system was about to collapse. On August 30, 2010, some 2.3 lac cusecs water had to be impounded in Tarbela dam. Otherwise, the Kalabagh headwork in Punjab and Sukkur headwork in Sindh, both sick barrages, would have been destroyed."
With canals closed during the floods, due to low water demand and threat of silt, pressure mounts on the irrigation system if storage is wanting. "During floods, it's an SOP to close the canals for six to twelve hours. If you release water, canals would breach and embankments would be destroyed. In such a situation, water storage comes in handy and eases the pressure on the system."
Dispute with India India is the bogeyman when it comes to our water woes. The former Chairman looks at it in a different way. "India used water from our eastern rivers to irrigate Rajasthan, and now, their farmers are selling food and vegetable items to the world. However, adjacent Pakistani areas like Cholistan and Thar turned into deserts due to government's indifference".
Pakistan took India to international court; however, its case is weak due to its inaction towards building reservoirs to reduce water losses. "India's potent argument remains that Pakistan is wasting excess water into the sea, so what if they utilises this resource and produces hydro-power. Pakistan does not have an answer to this, as water is viewed a precious resource abroad. India is successfully exploiting this point."
So, it has been sufficiently clear now that it is in creating adequate water storage capacity, through building large dams, that Pakistan can find solutions to critical issues like water availability, power crisis, channel losses, agricultural productivity and floods mitigation.
If this is all known to the policymakers (and it must be), one wonders if this is just another inconvenient truth for them. "Honestly, this boggles my mind, too. Unfortunately, we have failed in harnessing the resources we are blessed with, and the buck stops with the vision and governance of successive rulers," noted the former Chairman.
COURTESY: Economics and Finance Department, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi, prepared this analytical report for Business Recorder.
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