Waiting game

The sudden departure of President Zardari on 6th December for Dubai was first rationalised amongst political analysts as based on political rather than medical compulsions. Forces against his continued presidency, analysts pointed out, had gathered momentum.
These forces, PPP sources adamantly continue to insist do not consist of opposition politicians - notably PML (N) and Imran Khan's Tehrik-i-Insaaf - ratcheting up the temperature to hold general elections before the March Senate elections as these were effortlessly and effectively being tackled by the President.
Those more privy to what happened on the fateful night of 5th December maintain that the President did suffer minor brain haemorrhaging, accounting for 'incoherence' for about five minutes, and some form of cardiac problem that may or may not have been associated with a sudden drop of blood pressure, that necessitated his removal by helicopter to the military hospital. He was declared stable soon afterwards and was returned to the Presidency. He later met with Farooq H Naek and a photograph to that effect was released to the media though skeptics maintain that it could well have been a photograph from the archives. His son Bilawal meanwhile arrived in Karachi in the early hours of 6 December, as scheduled, and was quickly taken on a plane to Islamabad. Bilawal together with President Zardari's inner coterie decided that more tests were required, but in a country that would provide the President greater safety as well as better medical facilities than his home country. The President, it was decided, would be taken to Dubai . He was ill and, in his own words, did not trust Pakistani hospitals - a statement supported by the Prime Minister on the floor of the House last week citing security concerns.
There is general agreement amongst friends and foes alike that the President is well enough now to return to the country, given that he has left hospital and is now resident in his Dubai mansion. That he opts not to return to Pakistan is, post submission of the divergent military and government statements to the Supreme Court on Memogate, is now attributed to actions/non-actions by three centres of power in this country - two within the country and one without which have raised the President's concerns to boiling point compelling him to adopt a wait and see policy while safely ensconced in Dubai.
First and foremost, the army top brass. There is little doubt now that Chief of Army Staff General Pervez Kayani and General Pasha of the ISI were instrumental in compelling Husain Haqqani to resign as in their replies to the Supreme Court they have unambiguously declared the memo a reality and averred that a conspiracy was being hatched against the army and national security. The PPP high command's perception that with the pound of flesh delivered (Haqqani's resignation) the army would support its version of Memogate (that the memo does not exist with the implication that if it does exist, the President was unaware of it and that the parliamentary committee as opposed to the Supreme Court is the right forum for an investigation) clearly is not correct.
PPP maintains that subsequent to the killing of Osama bin Laden (OBL) by US marines, the army as well as its intelligence wing ISI were in great disrepute in the country. Therefore, the memo voicing concerns that a military coup was imminent and requesting US help to forestall it, would have been an extremely foolish and unnecessary decision that the government would simply not have taken. Many would facetiously maintain that PPP stalwarts have taken several decisions that can be defined as 'foolish' including the reported decisions leading up to the long march; however be as it may on May 3 President Zardari in the Washington Post expressed "satisfaction that the source of the greatest evil of the new millennium has been silenced, and his victims given justice. He was not anywhere we had anticipated he would be, but now he is gone." The Prime Minister referred to OBL's death as a success. Two other men closely associated with the President namely our non-career ambassador to US Husain Haqqani and High Cimmissioner to the UK Wajid Shamsul Hassan made disturbing statements. Haqqani stated that Pakistan was "very glad that our American partners did. They had superior intelligence, superior technology, and we are grateful to them;" and Wajid stated that Pakistan was "in the know of certain things" and "what happened, happened with our consent. Americans got to know him - where he was first - and that's why they struck it and struck it precisely." These comments may have perhaps been viewed as rubbing salt in the wounds of the GHQ! Be that as it may, General Kayani met with the Prime Minister on Friday and a press statement issued by the PM House noted that the two men rejected notions of a civil-military stand-off. However, few are convinced that the standoff is past.
The second major power player is the judiciary led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. The PPP publicly claims that it was the PPP-led government that restored the dismissed judges, considered technically correct, and (without batting an eye as it does seriously erode the first claim) continues a harangue against the judiciary for continuing to exhibit a bias against the PPP co-chairman and in Nawaz Sharif's favour. Implementation on several verdicts remains stalled through invocation of immunity enjoyed by the president in our constitution. No doubt the recent French court's decision with respect to a former president Jacques Chirac (in a case implicating Pakistanis including the then former first spouse Asif Zardari) would be cited here in months to come as well as the ongoing cases against the former Italian Premier Berlusconi. However, the fact remains that two recent Supreme Court verdicts/decisions concern the President personally, namely the dismissal of the review petition filed on the National Reconciliation Ordinance and the proposed establishment of a commission to ascertain the truth behind the Memogate allegations. The President's continued absence from Pakistan for the second week running has provided fuel to speculations that his decision is attributable to ongoing deliberations in the Supreme Court - an allegation denied by senior PPP leaders including Babar Awan.
The third power is the US which has categorically refused to prosecute Mansoor Ejaz and has termed Memogate, Pakistan's internal matter. It is reported that the government of Pakistan does not intend to seek justice against Ejaz in foreign courts - US and UK - which further fuels speculation that the accused have no leg to stand on.
The PPP's defence against the Memogate is simple: Ejaz is not credible and has spent several years criticising the army and the ISI. So why believe him? Ejaz's offending article that fuelled Memogate notes that, "General Ashfaq Kayani, the army chief, and his troops were demoralised by the embarrassing ease with which US special forces had violated Pakistani sovereignty. Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's feared spy service, was charged by virtually the entire international community with complicity in hiding bin Laden for almost six years. Both camps were looking for a scapegoat; Mr Zardari was their most convenient target ... Questions about the ISI's role in Pakistan have intensified in recent months. The finger of responsibility in many otherwise inexplicable attacks has often pointed to a shadowy outfit of the ISI dubbed S-Wing... The time has come for the state department to declare the S-Wing a sponsor of terrorism under the designation of "foreign governmental organisations". Forensic analysis of Ejaz's blackberry may make it difficult to save Haqqani if Ejaz's version is proved accurate.
However one would assume that the PPP high command may be fearful that any attempt to abandon Haqqani may lead to him joining forces with Ejaz in indicting the President as the major player in the Memogate.
Analysts maintain that the following scenarios are possible: (i) President Zardari takes a back seat to Prime Minister Gilani and/or is compelled to resign. However this would only be a cosmetic change as the source of the President's power is his chairmanship of the party; (ii) all decisions would be taken at GHQ. All are agreed that decisions relating to areas where the army is interested are being taken at GHQ in any case; (iii) the Supreme Court calls the army in its aid to implement its decisions including writing the letter to Swiss authorities (though senior constitutional lawyers maintain this is unlikely as the government can and will legally delay the matter till April next year when the case will be time-barred in Swiss courts). If, however, the letter is written, the PPP may submit its resignations and needless to add is in a position to present a powerful opposition which will give the next government a run for its money; (iv) elections be held before the March Senate elections (the opposition forces would have to take action within the next week or two as the PPP is expected to issue a notification for holding Senate elections soon) which is the only move, considered not likely, that would undermine the PPP as well as its chairman. Pundits are convinced that the PPP will lose some seats if elections are held within a month or two, especially in the urban areas because of its abysmal performance in government as well as the lack of personal charisma of its co-chairman President Asif Ali Zardari.
However, it is the PPP that can unseat the President as its chairman and this is unlikely to happen when the PPP is in power; but if the party loses the next elections then (like in the case of the Gandhi's in India after the Congress first lost elections post-Rajev Gandhi assassination) it may lead to the party revisiting the continuation of the present chairman in that post. This fear may well account for Bilawal Bhutto Zardari being ensconced in the Presidency since 6 December.
Meanwhile as noted rather tellingly by Dr Sheikh, the Finance Minister during a seminar this week past (in light of the judiciary's verdicts that may impact on the political fortunes of the President) the Supreme Court must be lauded for its role in generating 100 billion rupees through its decisions on cases of corruption/evasion that involved PPP loyalists as well as coalition partners. Sad but true!