Looming threat of confrontation

An explosive military confrontation is in the making in the Arabian Gulf, threatening closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a development with potential to throw out of hinge the recession-ridden global economy and to further weaken regional peace and security. Tehran has warned that should the United States attempt to redeploy to the Gulf an aircraft carrier, it would be resisted with "full force". USS John C. Stennis sailed out of its base last week and is expected to return any time, which the Iranians say would not be allowed. "Since you have gone, don't come back, otherwise you'll be responsible for any problem," the call was made by the deputy chief of the Iranian forces. The White House has brushed off the warning, saying it "reflects the fact that Iran is in a position of weakness". The stiff posturing on both sides may be for the gallery, but it is also pregnant with possibility of getting out of hand given that political stakes involved tend to impact the decision-making powers of their respective leaderships. President Obama may wish tension with Iran not coming to a head, but in this election year he can ill-afford to disappoint the evergreen anti-Iran warrior lobbies in the United States. In the past too, the two countries have rattled their sabres but the chain of developments leading to the present situation suggests a kind of no-return has beset by their perennial hostility. After a not-too-positive and to some patently biased, IAEA report on the Iranian nuclear programme, the United States launched a high-profile diplomatic offensive in the United Nations and at other forums securing a number of sanctions against Iran. These have indeed negatively impacted the Iranian economy though Tehran would not like to admit it. But what brings the sanctions-driven confrontation to the peak is the tough financial measures signed into law by President Obama on the eve of New Year, instantly followed up by European Union's agreement to join the anti-Iran sanctions regime. Will Iran succumb to sanctions and close down its nuclear programme, the answer is a big no. Economic sanctions as a pressure-lever haven't delivered anywhere - except by making life difficult for the weaker sections of the targeted societies - much less in Iran which over the years has acquired strong nationalist élan to withstand outside pressures. And in this, its determination stands buttressed with its high-visibility military manoeuvres. That it downed an American drone last month has certainly added to its confidence. But that said it would be naïve to believe that the United States would back off in face of the Iranian challenge, given its strong military presence in the Gulf and its strategic partnership with almost all the Arab states on the other side of the Gulf. Certainly a war in the Gulf, choking the Strait of Hormuz through which passes 20 percent of the total world oil supply, is on the horizon. And if it comes, it would not only seriously hurt the world economies, it would also undermine the already-fragile regional peace. With China and Russia opposing the American pressure-asserting moves against Iran, the conflict in the Gulf has the right potential to explode enveloping many others in the neighbourhood. Therefore, before the situation in the Gulf gets out of hand, the United Nations and all other forums that can help alleviate the situation should get into gear and do their best to defuse the crisis. Why is the UN Secretary General missing from the scene is a dereliction from duty, if not intriguingly intended. The regional powers too are expected to gather themselves and rise to the occasion, perhaps, following the Turkish prime minister's recent call to the Muslim world to be aware of the forces that seem busy fuelling the Shia-Sunni Cold War. Having left Iraq in tatters after invading it to eliminate Saddam Hussain's non-existent 'nuclear programme' and now in the process of leaving Afghanistan, conceding the ground to Taliban, who were intended to be wiped out following 9/11, the US-led Western war machine seems hell-bent on opening another war front in the region. But given that an Arab Spring is knocking at the door of the Gulf, the American roulette may hit its own allies. There are all kind of weird possibilities of the war in the Gulf getting out of hand. Things can go both ways. Copyright Business Recorder, 2012