Ukraine's grain harvest is likely to fall to 44.7 million tonnes in 2012 from 48.5 million tonnes in 2011 due to a poor wheat crop, analyst UkrAgroConsult said on Tuesday. The Farm Ministry said last month a third of Ukraine's winter grain crops were in poor condition as of December 26 due to a severe drought that hit the country during sowing.
The consultancy said in a report the wheat crop could fall to 14.5 million tonnes this year from 20.6 million tonnes in 2011. It also said the harvest of barley could rise to 9.45 million tonnes from 8.3 million tonnes while the maize crop might increase to 18 million tonnes from 17 million tonnes in 2011.
The government has said Ukraine's 2011 grain harvest reached a record of 56.4 million tonnes in 2011, including 22.4 million tonnes of wheat, against 39.2 million tonnes of grain in 2010. The government has also said Ukraine was likely to harvest between 12 and 16 million tonnes of wheat in 2012 despite a significant damage to winter crops.
It said that 79.7 percent of the sown area had sprouted as of December 26 against 93 percent at the same date in 2010. The ministry said that 66 percent of the sprouted crops were in good or satisfactory conditions while 34 percent were in poor state. The share of poor crops totalled 7 percent as of December 26, 2010. "As winter grains are in poor condition on vast expanses in the southern and central regions and are expected to be reseeded in the spring, substantial changes will take place in the 2012 grain planted acreage," the consultancy said.
"Winter crop areas will shrink and plantings of such spring crops as maize, spring barley, sorghum, and millet will expand." According to UkrAgroConsult estimates, the wheat area which would be harvested in 2012 is likely to fall to 5.45 million hectares from 6.69 million in 2011.
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